On November 5 elections will take place for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives across the United States, with Republicans hoping to strengthen their hold over the second chamber which they captured at the 2022 midterm elections.
A major study by the Cook Political Report, a group which provides nonpartisan election analysis, has highlighted 29 races in which an incumbent Republican could be under threat, split between those classed as “likely Republican,” “lean Republican” and “Republican toss-up.”
Republicans are hoping to take control of both chambers of Congress in next months elections following their mixed result at the 2022 midterms, when the GOP won control over the House but Democrats held the Senate when a widely anticipated “red wave” failed to materialize.
A study by FiveThirtyEight, a polling analysis website, published on Thursday concluded the Republicans have a 52 percent chance of controlling the House after November’s elections, against 48 percent for the Democrats. The conclusion was based on a study of “polling, economic and demographic data.”
Newsweek has produced a list of all the House Republicans who the Cook Political Report suggests could be under threat in November. These are divided into seats in which it is a toss-up whether the Republican incumbent will lose, those where this is unlikely and those where it is very unlikely. These three categories replicate the “Republican toss up,” “lean Republican” and “likely Republican” sections produced by the Cook Political Report.
Toss Up
David Schweikert (AZ-01)
David Schweikert is a Republican veteran who will be seeking his eighth term in Congress on November 5. He currently chairs the House Oversight Subcommittee and sits on the House Ways and Means Committee.
Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06)
Mexican born Juan Ciscomani won the 2022 election to represent Arizona’s sixth congressional district with 50.7 percent of the vote against 49.3 percent for his Democratic opponent.
John Duarte (CA-13)
John Duarte flipped California’s 13th congressional district in November 2022 with 50.2 percent of the vote against 49.8 percent for his Democratic rival.
David Valadao (CA-22)
David Valadao represents California’s 22nd Congressional District which includes Kings, Kern, and Tulare Counties. He has spent five terms in Congress over his career.
Mike Garcia (CA-27)
A first-generation American citizen Mike Garcia served in the Navy as one of the first F/A-18 Super Hornet strike fighter pilots before being elected to the Congress.
Ken Calvert (CA-41)
Ken Calvert won the election for California’s 41st congressional district in November 2022.
Michelle Steel (CA-45)
Michelle Steel, who was born in South Korea and raised in Japan, is currently serving her second term in the House of Representatives.
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01)
In 2020 Mariannette Miller-Meeks was elected to represent Iowa’s first congressional district and she went on to secure re-election two years later.
Zach Nunn (IA-03)
Zach Nunn was elected as the Representative of Iowa’s 3rd congressional district in November 2022 after previously serving in the Iowa state legislature.
Don Bacon (NE-02)
Since 2017 Don Bacon has represented Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district. Prior to this he served in the United States Air Force for 30 years.
CHRIS KLEPONIS/AFP/GETTY
Anthony D’Esposito (NY-04)
Anthony D’Esposito served as councilman in the town of Hempstead before being elected as representative for New York’s 4th congressional district in 2022.
Mike Lawler (NY-17)
Another New York Republican who triumphed in November 2022 Mike Lawler was a member of the New York State Assembly before getting elected to Congress.
Marc Molinaro (NY-19)
Before being elected to the House of Representatives in 2022 Molinaro was county executive of Dutchess County, New York.
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05)
Lori Chavez-DeRemer was elected to represent Oregon’s 5th congressional district in 2022, having previously served as mayor of Happy Valley in the state.
Unlikely
John James (MI-10)
John James was elected to the House in 2022 after unsuccessfully contesting a Michigan Senate seat in 2018 and 2022.
Ryan Zinke (MT-01)
Ryan Zinke worked as United States secretary of the interior in the Trump administration between 2017 and 2019. He was elected in 2022 to represent Montana’s 1st congressional district.
Thomas Kean Jr. (NJ-07)
Since January 2023 Thomas Kean Jr. has represented New Jersey’s 7th congressional district. Prior to that he served in the New Jersey Senate between 2003 and 2022.
Scott Perry (PA-10)
Scott Perry, a military veteran, has represented Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district in the House since 2013. He was previously chair of the influential House Freedom Caucus.
Jen Kiggans (VA-02)
Jen Kiggans defended Democratic incumbent Elaine Luria to secure election as representative for Virginia’s 2nd congressional district in 2022.
Derrick Van Orden (WI-03)
A former U.S. Navy SEAL who has represented Wisconsin’s 3rd congressional district since January 2023.
Very Unlikely
Kevin Kiley (CA-03)
Kevin Kiley served in the California State Assembly before being elected to the House of Representatives during the 2022 midterm elections.
Young Kim (CA-40)
Young Kim has represented California’s 40th congressional district, which includes northern areas of Orange County, since January 2021.
Lauren Boebert (CO-03)
Lauren Boebert, one of the most outspoken pro-Trump House Republicans, currently represents Colorado’s 3rd congressional district but is instead running for the state’s 4th congressional district in November. This follows the retirement of Ken Buck, a Republican.
Anna Paulina Luna (FL-13)
In November 2022 Anna Paulina Luna won election to the House as representative for Florida’s 13th district.
Maria Elvira Salazar (FL-27)
Maria Elvira Salazar, a former news anchor, has represented Florida’s 27th congressional district in the House since January 2021.
Nick LaLota (NY-01)
A U.S. Navy veteran who was elected to represent New York’s 1st congressional district in November 2022.
Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01)
Brian Fitzpatrick is a former FBI agent who has served in the House as a representative for Pennsylvania since 2017.
Monica De La Cruz (TX-15)
Monica De La Cruz has represented Texas’s 15th congressional district since January 2023.
Bryan Steil (WI-01)
A former attorney who has represented Wisconsin’s 1st congressional district since 2019.
