California Governor Gavin Newsom faces a steep uphill battle against former Vice President Kamala Harris in a potential 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary matchup, according to a new poll.
According to the latest McLaughlin and Associates poll, conducted among 1,000 voters, including 434 Democratic voters, between June 10 and June 15, Harris holds a comfortable lead over the rest of the field.
As of June 25, Harris garners 30 percent support among voters, while Newsom sits at just 8 percent, trailing not only Harris but also former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (10 percent) and Senator Cory Booker (7 percent) and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (7 percent).
Newsweek has contacted representatives of Newsom and Harris for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Newsom and Harris have not said whether they plan to run for the White House, but have long been considered Democratic contenders for 2028.
For Newsom, the low support in the poll could show that his political brand—closely associated with California’s liberal policies—may not be resonating more broadly as he struggles to separate himself from Democrats like Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez.
Following election losses across the board in 2024, the Democratic Party has gone through public infighting and struggled to unify around a clear successor at the top leading to some calls to rally behind a new generation of leadership.
AP
What To Know
Newsom’s polling numbers have remained relatively flat in recent months, fluctuating between 4 percent and 8 percent in the McLaughlin and Associates Poll since February. Meanwhile, Harris has consistently polled between 29 percent and 36 percent, suggesting a solid and stable base of support.
Among specific demographic groups such as moderates and voters under 55—Newsom has also lagged behind. Among moderates, he holds only 7 percent of the vote, compared to Harris’s 31 percent. Among younger voters, Harris leads with 30 percent, while Newsom trails at just 8 percent.
Harris also dominates key demographic segments that are crucial in Democratic primaries. She has overwhelming support among Black voters (44 percent), Hispanic voters (36 percent), and women (36 percent). Newsom polls at just 9 percent, 11 percent, and 6 percent in those groups, respectively.
His strongest demographic performance is among white voters (9 percent) and men (11 percent), but even there, he is far behind Harris, who gets 25 percent of white voters and 21 percent of men.
It comes as Newsom has attempted to increase public visibility in recent months, launching a podcast featuring conversations with conservative figures like Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon, signaling an attempt to broaden his appeal beyond traditional Democratic bases. He also announced that he would sue the Trump administration over the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, which ignited stock market volatility.
He has also shifted some of his rhetoric toward the political center, including proposing cuts to health care for immigrants without legal status, and revealing that he is against transgender athletes competing in women’s events, both of which drew backlash from other members of his party.
Despite these moves, his national profile has not surged, with some polls showing little appetite for a 2028 bid from Newsom.
An Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics/The Hill survey, conducted between April 12 and April 14 among 1,000 California registered voters, found that 59 percent of respondents said they don’t think that Newsom should run for president in 2028, with 41 percent supporting a bid for the Oval Office.
Meanwhile, a poll, conducted by co/efficient between May 7 and May 9 among 1,462 likely voters, found that just 2 percent of voters see Newsom as the face of the Democratic Party.
The poll showed that Ocasio-Cortez is viewed by more Democratic voters as the face of the party than any other figure, with 26 percent naming her—matching the 26 percent who said “no one” currently holds that title.
Ocasio-Cortez has not formally announced a presidential bid for 2028.
In a recent interview, Newsom expressed ambivalence about a presidential bid, telling the Los Angeles Times: “I have to have a burning why, and I have to have a compelling vision that distinguishes myself from anybody else. Without that, without both…I don’t deserve to even be in the conversation.”
What Happens Next
It is not clear when presidential hopefuls will begin announcing their bids for 2028.
The Democratic Primary to challenge for the White House in 2028 is likely to be a crowded field. In 2020, the last time Democrats had an open primary, more than a dozen Democrats launched White House bids.
