For decades, New Jersey Democrats could count on cities such as Paterson and Passaic to deliver wide margins on Election Day. That trend snapped in 2024, when President Donald Trump made sharp gains in many of the state’s Hispanic-majority cities that had long shunned the GOP.
Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, is trying to build on Trump’s momentum after his 2021 loss to Gov. Phil Murphy. For Democrats and their gubernatorial candidate, Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the question is whether Trump’s strength in New Jersey last year was a one-time surge or the start of a lasting shift.
The race, according to pollsters, is shaping up as a close contest. Sherrill, a Navy veteran and sitting congresswoman, has built her campaign around affordability and steady leadership. Ciattarelli, a former legislator, is focusing on tax cuts and opposing state housing mandates. Both candidates are well-known, and the race has tightened as voters weigh state concerns against national politics.
Looking back at last year’s presidential election, Trump lost New Jersey to Kamala Harris by six points, an improvement from his 16-point defeat in 2020. The 10-point swing came largely from Hispanic communities, which make up about 20% of the state’s adult population, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Trump cut Democratic margins sharply in those areas and carried several municipalities that had not voted Republican in decades, according to certified results from the New Jersey Division of Elections
Trump’s biggest gains in North Jersey came in Hispanic-majority cities previously considered Democratic strongholds. In Paterson, his margin improved by 33 points, cutting a 61-point deficit to 28, state records show. In neighboring Passaic, he gained 31 points and finished with a small lead.
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Similar trends emerged in Bergen County. South Hackensack and Moonachie, both heavily Hispanic, flipped from solidly Democratic to double-digit Republican wins. In Morris County, Victory Gardens, which is about 80% Hispanic, according to census data, moved 30 points in Trump’s direction.
Overall, Trump lost majority-Hispanic cities by 20 points in 2024, down from a 46-point deficit four years earlier. Similarly, smaller gains appeared in towns with large Black and Asian American populations.
For Ciattarelli, that shift could prove decisive. His 2021 loss to Gov. Phil Murphy was by slightly more than three points, or about 84,000 votes.
However, turning that potential into real votes to capitalize on Trump’s momentum is not simple. According to findings by the Pew Research Center, many of Trump’s 2024 backers were new or infrequent voters who tend to turn out only for presidential races. Moreover, in 2024, Trump’s appeal did not necessarily translate to GOP candidates down the ballot in the 9th Congressional District, which covers large parts of Bergen and Passaic counties and is 43% Hispanic. There, Trump narrowly beat Harris, but Democrats still won the open House seat.
Ciattarelli also faces challenges in the state’s affluent suburbs. Voters there backed him in 2021 but rejected Donald Trump in both presidential races, state records show. His campaign depends on winning them back, even as Democrats try to tie him to the national administration’s agenda.
The most critical factor, however, may be turnout. In 2021, only 57% of New Jersey voters who cast ballots in the presidential race turned out for the governor’s race, state records show. The drop was steepest in non-white communities.
In Passaic and Paterson, turnout dropped by more than a third from the 2020 presidential election and Democrats carried both cities by wide margins. Meanwhile, in Haledon and Prospect Park, two smaller Passaic County boroughs with large Hispanic populations, turnout was down by about 40%. The turnout decline narrowed Murphy’s margin and nearly cost Democrats the seat.
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Will GOP momentum from 2024 return in 2025 NJ race for governor?
