Republicans continue to flood the zone with favorable data to demonstrate not only can Donald Trump defeat the better-funded Kamala Harris in November, he can carry some Senate candidates with him in swing states and others besides.
That’s the takeaway from Senate Opportunity Fund internal polling swing states Nevada and Wisconsin and Senate battleground Ohio, which forecasts the GOP nominee going three for three and helping to flip based on surveys of 600 likely voters in each conducted between Oct. 19 and Oct. 22.
In Nevada, Trump leads Kamala Harris 50% to 47%, on the strength of being +88 with conservatives, who represent 41% of the sample. Additionally, he has an 11 point lead with men, while Harris is only up 4 with women.
Though much polling of the Senate race has shown Democrat Jacky Rosen comfortably ahead of Republican Sam Brown, the GOP internal suggests the race is a genuine jump ball with the 2 candidates tied at 48%. Additionally, they are both essentially even in image tests, with Brown at -1 and the incumbent treading water.
Brown is +85 with conservatives, and +8 with men, suggesting that his chances of winning are predicated on increasing turnout among those groups.
Wisconsin presents another chance for the GOP to win a doubleheader, with Trump up 48% to 47% over Harris, and businessman Eric Hovde leading Democratic perennial Tammy Baldwin 49% to 48%.
Trump is +86 with conservatives (44% of the Badger State sample), and +16 with men.
While the Senate candidate equals Trump’s +16 with men, Hovde is slightly stronger with conservatives, with an 88 point advantage over Baldwin.
Ohio, meanwhile, is not in doubt on the presidential ballot by most metrics. And the Senate Opportunity Fund’s survey is no exception, with the former president up 52% to 44%, buoyed by a 16 point lead with men and a tied race with women.
Trump is also +4 in favorability overall, while Harris is -8, further cementing the impression of inevitability.
Trump’s 8 point lead translates into a smaller, but nonetheless meaningful 2 point edge for Republican Bernie Moreno’s bid to send incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown home permanently.
Moreno is 7 points underwater in terms of favorability, and -17 with women, while Brown is 3 points south of equilibrium and -13 with men. Yet overall, the GOP insurgent is up 49% to 47%.
Liberals may be with Brown, 97% to 2%. But they only make up 25% of the electorate.
Meanwhile, among the 46% of Buckeyes who call themselves conservative, the challenger is up 87% to 9%.
