The Miami Heat and Orlando Magic will open up Tuesday’s doubleheader of NBA Cup quarterfinal games, and based on their first two meetings this season, it should be an entertaining matchup.
The Magic (14-10) and Heat (14-10) are fifth and sixth in the Eastern Conference entering Tuesday, and Orlando has taken Miami down twice already this season.
The Heat are slight 1-point favorites on the road with the Over/Under sitting at 234.5 at Caesars Sportsbook.
Heat vs. Magic odds, prediction
When the odds opened, the Magic were 5.5-point favorites at home, but this line has shifted considerably since then. The line slowly moved closer to a pick’em over the course of a week, then the Magic lost Franz Wagner to a high ankle sprain on Sunday against the Knicks.
After the injury, the Heat moved to as much as 2.5-point favorites before the line flipped back to the Magic.
The line movement reflects how close these two teams have played each other so far this season and what I expect in their knockout-round matchup. Both the season opener and their game this past Friday night went down to the final minute.
The Heat and Magic play completely different styles, but the results have been eerily similar. The Heat rank 13th on offense and fifth on defense, and the Magic rank 14th on offense and sixth on defense.
The Heat has a remarkable offensive philosophy that maximizes the sum of its parts.
They lead the NBA in transition possessions, rank third in isolation plays, and rank second in assists per game.
Betting on the NBA?
They also rank last in the NBA in pick-and-roll possessions, which has opened up space for players to attack defenders one-on-one instead of bringing defenders to the ball.
More importantly, the Heat players don’t hold the ball long and are quick to move it, so the offense keeps flowing.
The Magic offense is noticeably faster this season, jumping up from 96.5 possessions per game last season, the slowest in the NBA, to 101.2, which ranks 12th this season.
They rank sixth in transition plays and have the third-highest scoring frequency in the NBA on those possessions.
The one thing the Magic offense lacks is outside shooting: they rank 25th in 3-point attempts and 27th in 3-point percentage.
The Magic make up for their poor shooting outside by getting to the free-throw line more than any other team in the association, but the Heat commit the fourth-fewest fouls per game.
Betting on the NBA?
Because these teams are so close at full strength, I think the fact that the Magic won’t have Wagner gives the Heat a bit of an edge.
He was one of the few Magic rotation players who was shooting a decent percentage on 3-pointers, and without him, the Heat should be able to win the math game.
I’ll take the Heat on the moneyline to advance to the semifinals in Las Vegas.
The Pick: Heat moneyline -110 (BetRivers)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
