How Swing States Determine the Fate of US Presidential Elections | Marketplace

Betting on the US Presidential elections is risky as many factors affect the elections, and any one of those factors may swing the elections in favor of the Republican Party or the Democratic Party.

The US elections are conducted in multiple stages. The President is elected in an indirect manner. This means that the general population of the US does not directly vote for the President but elects their representatives, who in turn elect the President. So, the first stage of the election is to elect the electors, who are 538 in number; hence, any person who gets 270 votes gets a majority. The state-level elections are known as primaries. At this level, the people are the representatives of the party that they want to elect. The results of the primaries are announced at an official convention. After the official announcement, the official campaign begins, and debates between the presidential candidates take place. Now, in the official campaign stage, special attention is paid to the swing states.

If you are planning on betting on the US election, you must understand the importance of swing states. Some of the states out of the fifty US states that exist are dedicated voters of either the Democratic or the Republican Party. However, there are some states that do not have any special preference, and they can sway in either direction. Now, these swing states have become important as the presidential candidate can woo the voters of these states and make a difference in the final outcome of the polls.

In the 2024 presidential election, states like California, New York, Maryland, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Washington were favorable towards the Democratic Party. States like Wyoming, West Virginia, Idaho, South Dakota and Alabama, on the other hand, are aligned towards the Republican Party. Hence, the Presidential candidates will not focus much on these states, but they will focus on the swing states like Nevada, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, etc. In this blog post, you will discuss how and why swing states can affect the outcomes of the 2024 presidential elections.

Arizona is typically known as a desert state, given the vast expanse of deserts that you see in the country. This desert state in the South West of the continent of America has seen several changes in the recent past that have affected its polity.

The local population of Arizona has undergone a dramatic shift in the past few years. There has been heavy migration from states like California. Moreover, there has been a heavy influx of the Latino population. Now, the Latino population often exceeds the native population because they have a high birth rate. So whenever there is an influx of the Latino population, the local culture undergoes extensive changes. At present, Latinos make up 19% of the US population, and they are expected to be a potent factor in deciding the fate of the US elections.

Apart from the changing population composition, the level or the extent of urbanization in Arizona state also makes it a swing state. Large parts of Arizona have undergone steady urbanization in the past four or five years. With urbanization, people’s aspirations and levels of awareness undergo a lot of change. So, it is expected that their demands and their choice of government may also change.

Also, the percentage of the population that has started attending college has also changed in Arizona. When children attend college, they gain a lot of awareness. These children know the power of the ballot, and if they are dissatisfied with the working of the government, they are very likely to change their representatives.

Finally, there has been a rise in political awareness in Arizona state. The local population has started taking a keen interest in political affairs. So, this increased awareness may lead to a change in the government (preference of political party).

The state of Georgia, in the southeastern part of the continent bordering North and South Carolina, is also a swing state for the 2024 US Presidential elections. Just like Arizona, Georgia has also seen a demographic shift, which may affect voter preference during the elections. The minority population and their vote share have gone up in the past few years.

The minority community has specific demands like citizenship and the need for better facilities. Migrants and minorities have their demands centered around citizenship. They want the citizenship to be granted easily with less ambiguity around the steps for granting citizenship. Moreover, migrants want to reunite with their families who already stay in the United States. Finally, migrants want to be a part of the social security schemes that give them access to cheap healthcare facilities, etc. So, whichever party offers better terms to the minority community will have an advantage in Georgia.

The city of Atlanta will be a key point of concern in Georgia. Political analysts suggest that the rapid urbanization of Atlanta will have a key impact on the results of the 2024 elections.

Michigan has a mixed population, which means the white population, the African American population, and the migrants coexist in this state. Moreover, Michigan’s economy is largely dependent on the automobile industry. Now, whenever the economy is dependent on a single type of industry, be it the automobile sector, the textile sector, or the agricultural sector, the people become highly dependent on that particular economic activity. Now, whenever there is any significant change in the automobile sector, the sector is bound to suffer from worker layoffs and other changes in management.

At present, the automobile sector is seeing a surge in driverless cars. Moreover, cars are increasingly becoming eco-friendly; that is, they are being equipped with pollution control measures and have the ability to use green fuels. So, if the present government in Michigan has not been able to deal with the concerns of the local working population effectively, then the voters may sway.

Michigan has typically voted on a geographical or regional basis. This means that some cities have a preference for the Republican Party, whereas others have a liking for the Democratic Party. Now, how the dynamics of these small regions or pockets have changed will have a key impact on the way the representative is chosen at the state level.

Finally, Michigan has traditionally voted in a manner where they choose a Democratic candidate or a Republican candidate in an alternative manner. At present, the governor of Michigan is from the Democratic Party. Gretchen Whitmer has done a good job and signed several revolutionary bills during his term. However, it needs to be seen whether his governance and the bills that he has signed have made the right impact on the minds of the voters. So, if you are betting on the outcome of the elections in Michigan, it is better to be updated about the sentiments of the voters before placing any bets.

Nevada is another desert state like Arizona, which can be a swing state for the 2024 US presidential elections. The economy of Michigan state is largely dependent on the automobile industry; similarly, the economy of Nevada is largely dependent on tourism (hospitality sector).

Nevada has some of the most famous casinos in the world. Rich and famous people from all around the world visit Nevada to splurge on gambling and experience a luxurious time. So, the rules and regulations that regulate the tourism sector, the tax burden that the casinos or luxury hotels are subject to, or the gambling laws that are applicable to the casinos will affect the voter’s preferences.

Also, Nevada has historically been a swing state. This means that they have not voted for either the Republican or Democratic Party in a consistent fashion; instead, they have always flipped their priorities from one election to the other. At present, the governor of Nevada is Joe Lombardo, who is from the Republican Party. However, when the elections for the governor’s position took place, Joe defeated his counterpart from the Democratic Party by a narrow margin. So, this narrow margin of victory does not guarantee that the Republican Party will come to power again in 2024, and so the fate of Nevada remains uncertain.

North Carolina is a swing state in the 2024 US Presidential elections. North Carolina has a diverse population, so there are multiple demands from different sections of the population. In every US state where the natives predominate, the majority wants the entry barriers in the country to be high. However, with the minority population or the migrants, the demand is the opposite. They want the entry barriers to be low and immigration laws to be flexible. Now, with states like North Carolina, catering to all kinds of people becomes a challenge, and whichever party satisfies a majority of the population will be elected to power.

Places like Charlotte have seen rapid urbanization. Now, with rapid urbanization, the burden on the municipal government increases. They have prepared for better sewage facilities, better roads, flyovers, etc. Since urbanization has been rapid, it is a challenge for the local government to live up to the expectations of the people.

The state of North Carolina is dependent on the finance sector. So, any major changes in the market conditions, be it the rise and fall of the stock market or the collapse of any major bank, have an impact on North Carolina. There has been no major economic upheaval in the recent past, and the rate of unemployment has been low; however, the dissatisfaction level among the locals is difficult to predict.

Wisconsin is a swing state for the 2024 Presidential election. Most analysts believe that the results will be such that nobody will win an overwhelming majority. If statistics from the recent elections in the state are to be believed, the winning margins will be very narrow for whichever party wins. Wisconsin also has a very diverse population. Moreover, there has been a steady influx of people from Asian countries in this state.

Many of these people who had migrated in the early 2000s have acquired US citizenship over the years. These people have demands that are different from those of the native population, and catering to so many varied demands will be quite a challenge for the government. So, if the present dispensation has not fulfilled the majority of the demands, there might be a change in the government.

The US elections are an important effect that affects the global financial market as well as the relationship between the nations of the world. It is obvious that the whole world will keep a close eye on the results of the election. The Republican candidate is Donald Trump, who hopes to win a second term. The Democratic Party’s candidate is Kamala Harris, and these two candidates will put in a lot of effort to win the trust of the people from the swing states, so if you are betting on the US elections, keep a close eye on all the swing states and bet wisely.

*The San Francisco Examiner newsroom and editorial were not involved in the creation of this content.