Hurricane Melissa makes its slow and terrifying approach on Jamaica today, Oct. 28, as a Category 5 storm. Conditions are already deteriorating, with “catastrophic winds, flash flooding, and storm surge expected on the island today,” according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Sarasota and Manatee County residents — who recall the devastation Debby, Helene, and Milton brought during the 2024 hurricane season — can help by donating to the U.S. Caribbean Strong Relief Fund, managed by The Miami Foundation. Other options for donating include the South Florida-based Global Empowerment Mission and Food for the Poor, as well as American Friends of Jamaica, which is based in New York.
Where is Hurricane Melissa expected to hit next?
Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica through Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning, and across the southeastern Bahamas later on Wednesday.
Historic, life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected in portions of Jamaica, southern Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend, the NHC said. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels when the storm makes landfall, accompanied by large and powerfully destructive waves.
“Extreme impacts could last for hours in places in the path of the eyewall as the hurricane crosses the island,” Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist said in an email. “People need to be prepared to hunker down for days.”
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According to the hurricane center, Hurricane Melissa is expected to make landfall on Jamaica and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.
Significant impacts to Florida and the U.S. East Coast are not expected at this time.
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Hurricane Melissa latest satellite images, weather graphics
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Melissa. See trajectory, path
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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Where is Hurricane Melissa now? Where is it headed?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Is a hurricane coming to Florida?
Melissa poses “little to no risk to Florida or the continental U.S.,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
“Odds of any outer bands of Melissa even minimally scraping southeast Florida on its way out (into the Atlantic) are around 5%.”
“The timing and strength of a dip in the jet stream over the eastern United States next week will help determine the path that Melissa takes through the northern Caribbean and into the southwestern Atlantic,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said Oct. 25. “At this time, the odds of ‘direct’ rain and wind impacts from Melissa reaching the U.S. East Coast are low.
Forecasters caution residents to monitor the tropics and stay prepared.
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No watches or warnings associated with Hurricane Melissa are in effect for Florida or the U.S. as of Oct. 28.
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This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Hurricane Melissa targets Jamaica as Cat 5; Sarasota keeps close watch
