NASCAR heads to Iowa Speedway for the first time in Cup Series history for the Iowa Corn 350.
It’s the first race for the NBC/USA TV slate in 2024. You can tune on Sunday at 7 p.m.
It’s the first race at Iowa Speedway for the Cup Series, but many drivers have experience on the track in the Xfinity and Truck Series.
Perhaps that’ll give them an upper hand on Sunday.
FanDuel has Christopher Bell (+400), Kyle Larson (+550) and Denny Hamlin (+700) as the favorites.
Bell is a two-time winner in the Xfinity Series at Iowa.
We don’t have past Iowa data for the Cup Series, so we’ll use similar track types and 2024 speed to determine the top picks for Sunday’s race.
Denny Hamlin top-five finish (+125, bet365)
There aren’t many drivers in the field with no experience at Iowa, but Hamlin is one of them.
Despite that, he’s one of the pre-race favorites, and I’m backing him to record a strong finish.
Iowa is a short, flat track that aligns with Phoenix, Richmond and Gateway.
Hamlin had the fourth-, sixth- and fourth-best speed rankings, respectively, across those three races. He won at Richmond and finished second at Gateway.
Overall, Hamlin has excelled on short tracks, winning in the exhibition race at the L.A. Coliseum before winning at Bristol.
Don’t let the lack of experience scare you off. Hamlin will be in contention for the win on Sunday.
Ryan Blaney finishing under 6.5 (+100, Caesars)
I’m expecting a big performance from the Toyota camp, but if there’s one driver who can spoil the party, it’s Blaney.
The defending Cup Series champion, who has Xfinity and Truck Series wins at Iowa, should’ve won at Gateway but ran out of gas on the final lap.
Both Phoenix and Gateway have long been one of Blaney’s best tracks on the circuit.
We don’t need him to win at Iowa or even score a top-five finish.
He just needs to finish sixth or better to win this prop.
Martin Truex Jr. over William Byron (-115, BetMGM)
Truex left last week’s race at Sonoma with the most disappointment.
He lost the lead in the final 10 laps and ran out of gas while running second on the final lap.
Luck hasn’t been on his side lately, but that could change in Iowa.
Truex had a flat tire at Gateway, leading to a 34th-place finish.
Before that, he had top-two speed rankings at Phoenix (fastest) and Richmond (second-fastest).
William Byron has been just OK across the short, flat tracks in 2024, with just one finish better than 14th across three races.
Overall, he has finished 15th or worse in four of his past six races.
Both drivers are trending down heading into Iowa. Ultimately, I trust Truex’s success on short, flat tracks in 2024.
Winning manufacture: Toyota (+125, DraftKings)
The Toyota camp comes into this race with high hopes.
Bell is the pre-race favorite, and Hamlin is not far behind. Many more contenders exist — including Truex, Reddick, Ty Gibbs and Bubba Wallace.
Bell won at Phoenix, and Reddick, Truex, Hamlin and Gibbs were top-six in speed ranking.
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Then Hamlin captured the checkered flag at Richmond, with Truex, Wallace and Bell displaying top-five speed.
Bell was the class of the field at Gateway before a late engine issue relegated him to a seventh-place finish.
Hamlin, Reddick and Gibbs also had top-five speed.
The odds are too short on Bell, but he’s my favorite pick for Sunday’s race.
If not him, it could be any driver from the Toyota camp.
