The entire state of Iowa looks to be up for grabs next November after elections up and down the ticket got yet another shake-up in the latest twist of Iowa’s electoral rollercoaster.
Just as Iowa’s political landscape was starting to settle following Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds’ surprise retirement announcement in April, Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst upended things again when she confirmed she would not seek reelection in 2026.
The wide-open state of play is vaulting Iowa back into the national spotlight as an unexpected midterm battleground.
Iowa will have open seats with no incumbent running in the races for governor, state auditor and the U.S. Senate, as well as the 2nd and 4th congressional districts.
Meanwhile, Iowa’s 1st and 3rd congressional districts are expected to once again be two of the top-targeted contests in the country.
Cast it all against the backdrop of the still-burgeoning 2028 GOP presidential primaries, and Iowa is a can’t-avoid state this election season for Republicans and Democrats nationwide.
“I think it absolutely is a state to pay attention to,” said Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report.
Campaign signs for Iowa Democrats are seen throughout Des Moines Water Works Park during the Polk County Democrats’ annual steak fry on Sept. 13, 2025.
National Democrats have exceedingly narrow paths to reclaim control in both the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate, and the open races in Iowa represent key pickup opportunities as Republicans work to defend their majorities.
Retired longtime Iowa political journalist David Yepsen called the moment “unprecedented” in Iowa.
Even if Republicans maintain near-total control of the state, as they do now, he said, the elections will usher in a wave of new leaders, all but guaranteeing a new political dynamic for the state in 2026.
“It is a time of great change coming at us in Iowa politics,” he said.
Can Iowa Democrats capitalize?
Even with the dramatic shift in candidates, some of Iowa’s political dynamics remain unchanged.
The state is undeniably red, with active registered Republicans accounting for about 33% of the electorate, compared with 24% who are active registered Democrats.
Republican President Donald Trump has carried the state in three successive presidential elections, raising his margin of victory to its highest point in 2024, with a 13-point margin.
Republicans also expanded their control of the Iowa Legislature and swept the state’s four congressional races.
So what makes Democrats think they stand a chance in 2026?
Without a presidential candidate at the top of the ticket, midterm elections historically have benefited the party that does not control the White House. This cycle, it’s Democrats who could stand to gain.
In 2018, the last midterm election when Trump was in the White House, Iowa’s political parties saw mixed results across the state, with Democrats gaining at the federal level and Republicans doing better at the state level.
Democrats flipped two congressional seats in their favor and held onto a third that year. And Reynolds defeated Democrat Fred Hubbell in the gubernatorial race, earning her first full term in office with a 3 percentage-point victory.
Cindy Axne, left, and Abby Finkenauer of Iowa flipped two congressional districts in favor of Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections.
Walter said that since 2006, every election but 2012 was a “change election” at the federal level. In each of those elections, either the House, the Senate or both flipped party control, she said.
Currently, Republicans control both the House and Senate.
“If there’s been a constant, and even in this Trump era, it is change and the sort of usurping of the status quo,” she said. “So that’s been pretty consistent, regardless of who the president was.”
That national dynamic – paired with the now super-wide-open nature of Iowa’s political landscape – has left some Democrats feeling like this is the clearest opportunity they’ll have to reclaim a foothold in the state.
“In Iowa, we’ve seen some candidates come up short. We’ve seen some candidates kind of implode. We’ve seen the national party try to meddle in our affairs and not have a good track record,” Democratic strategist and former Iowa Democratic Party Chair Derek Eadon said. “It’s kind of put-up or shut-up time. So, we need to perform well, and maybe it’s incumbent upon us to show the rest of the country how to do it.”
Iowa Republican strategist Nicole Schlinger said she agrees that Iowa is facing “a unique moment” in 2026.
“But it’s not the opportunity Democrats want it to be,” she said.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-MD, joins Iowa Democrats during the 2025 Polk County Democrats’ Steak Fry on Sept. 13, 2025, at Des Moines Water Works Park.
“For years, Democrats have told themselves the same story: that an open seat means a real shot,” she said. “But the reality is their bench has been decimated, their state party is in disarray, they’re hemorrhaging voter registrations, and the enthusiasm gap is wider than ever. Meanwhile, Republicans have a strong slate of proven leaders and stable infrastructure that make Iowa a safe bet for national committees and outside groups.”
Walter said it’s important for both sides to remember how close some elections have been in recent years. Small swings one direction or the other can have an outsized effect on election night.
Iowa’s 1st District – which U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks won by 6 votes in 2020 and by about 800 votes in 2024 – is a clear example.
“It doesn’t take that much,” Walter said. “Just a little surge of enthusiasm from the blue side or the red side to flip a seat one way or the other.”
As Joni Ernst opts out, ripple effects impact races
Ernst’s decision to forego reelection reset the U.S. Senate race and opened the door for Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson to launch a Senate campaign.
Hinson has quickly consolidated major GOP support around her race; though, two other candidates are running in the Republican primary: former state Sen. Jim Carlin and former Libertarian candidate Joshua Smith.
There is also a crowded field of Democratic primary challengers vying for the chance to compete in a general election. And although they hope that competing in a race without a Republican incumbent will be a benefit, Walter said Hinson – who is well established in her own right – is potentially in a stronger position than Ernst was.
“Normally, you say, ‘Oh, we don’t want an open seat. It’s so much more volatile, so much more unpredictable,’” Walter said. “But given the liabilities that Ernst was carrying on everything from really angering the MAGA base with her sort of hesitancy on Pete Hegseth to her comments at the town hall earlier this year about ‘Everybody’s going to die.’ That made her more vulnerable than many Republicans would like.”
But Hinson’s departure from the 2nd Congressional District could make that race more competitive for Democrats.
Cook Political Report moved the 2nd District into the “likely Republican” column, meaning that it has the potential to host a competitive race in 2026. Cook previously did not consider it competitive.
“GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson’s (IA-02) Senate campaign makes her current House seat more vulnerable to a Democratic upset,” analyst Erin Covey wrote. “Hinson, a prodigious fundraiser, outperformed President Donald Trump by 6 points last year, and it’ll be difficult for any Republican candidate to match her strength.”
Still, it’s a red district where voters are inclined to support a Republican, Covey said.
Supporters applaud during Ashley’s BBQ Bash on Aug. 23, 2025, at Hawkeye Downs Speedway and Expo Center in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
State Sen. Charlie McClintock, R-Alburnett, former state Rep. Joe Mitchell and former U.S. Rep. Rod Blum have launched Republican campaigns, with others expected to get into the mix.
Three Democrats are seeking their party’s nomination there: Kathy Dolter, a U.S. Army veteran and former dean of nursing at Kirkwood Community College; state Rep. Lindsay James, of Dubuque, an ordained Presbyterian pastor; and Clint Twedt-Ball, a Cedar Rapids resident and former nonprofit leader.
Although Democrats are hoping to capitalize on the national midterm dynamics and Iowa’s GOP shakeups, some Republicans say the candidate changes will inject a fresh jolt of energy, attention and resources from national Republican groups.
“It started off with just two competitive congressional races,” said Iowa political consultant Luke Martz, a Republican. “And now that we have not just two competitive congressional races, but potentially three competitive congressional races, a new individual running for the U.S. Senate and a current congressman running for governor, this is bad news for Rob Sand. Republicans are going to look at Iowa differently now because of this shakeup and put resources here they probably wouldn’t have put otherwise if it had just been two competitive congressional races.”
U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, dances during Ashley’s BBQ Bash on Aug. 23, 2025, at Hawkeye Downs Speedway and Expo Center in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
Martz said Republicans are going into what could be a contentious midterm cycle.
“And I think Republicans would be wise to take all of these races seriously,” he said.
Will Trump supporters turn out to vote if he’s not on ballot?
Hinson launched her campaign with an explicit embrace of Trump, saying she intends to be the president’s “top ally in the United States Senate.” And she quickly received his endorsement after her launch.
And Republican U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra, who formed a gubernatorial exploratory committee, has also claimed strong ties to the president as he establishes himself in a GOP primary field. He’s taken credit for helping to write major portions of the “One Big, Beautiful Bill.”
President Donald Trump takes the stage during the American 250 kickoff event on July 3, 2025, at the Iowa State Fairgrounds.
It’s a trend among Iowa Republicans, nearly across the board.
But without Trump on the ballot, it’s an open question whether his diehard MAGA base will turn out to support other Republican candidates.
That will be a key factor in determining the election outcomes in 2026, Walter said.
“I don’t expect that rural America or rural Iowa is suddenly going to turn against Donald Trump or turn against Republicans,” she said. “The question is whether they decide to turn out.”
Iowa Democrats point, as a model, to their recent special election victory in a red state Senate district where they dramatically outperformed their 2024 election outcome to elect Democrat Catelin Drey.
With lower turnout overall, Democrats prevailed in areas that had previously supported Republicans.
“Iowa Democrats are sending a message to complacent, out-of-touch Republicans,” Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart said in a statement. “We are not afraid to target even the reddest of districts and we aren’t slowing down any time soon.”
Democrat Catelin Drey, of Sioux City, is sworn into the Iowa State Senate to represent Iowa Senate District 1 on Sept. 15, 2025, at the Iowa State Capitol.
Former Dallas County Republican Party chair Kelley Koch said it’s not just Trump that Iowa Republicans will be missing at the top of the ticket.
Iowa Republicans are accustomed to having major incumbent candidates like former Gov. Terry Branstad and U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley helping to carry the party, she said.
“Iowa is so used to being Branstad, Reynolds, Grassley – you know, and we’re like kicking back saying, ‘This is easy,’” she said. “This is the first time that I think Iowa is – not panicked – but basically active. (We’ve) really, really got to work.”
She said Iowa Republicans will need to focus on engagement and voter recruitment.
“I think it’s forcing people to get out of their comfort zone and actually work harder,” she said. “All hands on deck.”
Des Moines Register reporter Stephen Gruber-Miller contributed to this report.
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. Reach her at [email protected] or 515-284-8244. Follow her on X at @brianneDMR.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa politics gets yet another shakeup going into 2026: What it means
