Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia, a Democrat, fares better than all but one of his Republican rivals heading into the 2026 midterms, when he will have to defend his seat from challengers.
Why It Matters
Republicans hold a slender majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, meaning they must win any and all seats up for grabs if they hope to more effecitvely push through their agenda without needing to rely on reconciliation.
Republicans view Georgia, which narrowly supported President Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as a major opportunity to make one such gain.
The state has grown increasingly purple over the most recent elections: Senator Marjorie Taylor Green, a Republican, has already seen poor polling that could indicate Republican hardline politics may have limited appeal in what could be an incredibly contentious and tightly run midterm competition.
What To Know
According to polling data from polling and analytics firm Cygnal, Ossoff beats his closest republican rivals with some healthy margins. Only Brad Raffensperger, the Georgia Secretary of State, poses a considerable threat from the Republicans—unless Georgia Governor Brian Kemp decides to join the race.
Raffensperger scored a statistical tie against Ossoff in the polling, and other potential rivals, including Kelly Loeffler, who previously ran against Ossoff and lost despite Trump’s backing, fell outside of the margin of error, which Cygnal identified as plus or minus 3.4 percent.
One potential stumbling block for Ossoff is Mike Collins, one of the current representatives from Georgia, who is behind Ossoff by only 2.5 points, putting him within the margin of error but outside of a statistical tie, such as the case of Raffensperger.
While Cygnal did not poll Kemp versus Ossoff, the data showed that Kemp has an overwhelmingly positive net favorability: Kemp has a net favorability of over 25 percent compared to Ossoff’s 7.7 percent.
However, Cygnal found that between 11 and 13 percent of respondents were undecided, leaving much room for either side to gain an advantage as the midterms draw closer. Notably, when asked about a generic U.S. Senate ballot and whether the election was held today, would the respondents vote for a republican or Democrat, the republican came out ahead 48 percent to 44 percent.
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The Cygnal poll surveyed 800 Georgia voters, all of whom voted in the 2024 general election, and was conducted between May 15 and 17 of this year. Interviews were conducted over phone calls and text.
Cygnal works with many Republican campaigns and groups, including the Republican Attorneys General, the Republican Senate Campaign Committee, and several governors, including Kemp and Texas Governor Greg Abbott, according to the firm’s website.
The polls also identified inflation in the economy as a potential top concern for voters going into next year’s midterms, followed by threats to democracy, illegal immigration and border security, Social Security and Medicare, and government spending and waste.
Half of all respondents said that they found that Georgia was going in the right direction while just over one-third said that the state was on the wrong track.
What People Are Saying
GOP operative Stephen Lawson told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “If Brian Kemp runs for the U.S. Senate, Brian Kemp will be the next U.S. Senator from Georgia.
“But if he takes a pass, Republicans should be much more judicious about who the nominee is, given the uncertain political environment and the fact that Jon Ossoff has proven he will be a formidable opponent.”
What Happens Next
The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026, during which time Ossoff’s seat will be up for grabs.
