As the presidential election cycle inches closer to an end, polling has continued to show that Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are locked in an incredibly tight race as early voting is underway.
In the latest surveys released Friday morning, Harris saw a narrow edge in ongoing poll coverage from Tipp, while an Emerson College Polling survey also showed a slight advantage for the vice president. Meanwhile, the final poll from the New York Times and Siena College showed a tie in the popular vote.
The latest numbers come as each candidate travels to key battleground states around the U.S. to make their final pitches to voters.
Here is what to know about presidential polling on Friday, Oct. 25:
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Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in final NYT/Siena poll
The final New York Times and Siena College poll out Friday shows that Trump and Harris are tied for the popular vote 48% to 48%.
The survey of 2,516 likely voters nationwide took place from Oct. 20 to Oct. 23, with a margin of error plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
The latest poll suggests the race has drawn even closer since the Times/Siena College’s previous poll taken in early October, which showed Harris had a three-point lead over Trump, though the change is within the margin of error.
“A high-profile debate, two attempts on (Trump’s) life, dozens of rallies across seven battlefield states and hundreds of millions spent on advertisements have seemingly done little to change the trajectory of the race,” the Times stated.
Harris leads New Hampshire, but falls behind Biden
Harris is leading Trump by three percentage points among New Hampshire voters in a new poll released Friday by Emerson College Polling.
The poll of 915 voters showed Harris leading 50% to 47% among likely voters less than two weeks before the Nov. 5 election. When accounting for undecided voters, Harris’ overall support in New Hampshire increases to 51%, according to the poll.
The poll showed Harris with a lead with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points. The poll was conducted from Monday to Wednesday.
The new poll showed that 34% of those surveyed saw the economy as the top issue in the upcoming presidential election. Another 26% of those survey said housing affordability as the top issue, while 10% said threats to democracy.
Democrats have dominated New Hampshire in recent presidential elections, but Harris’ support among voters is falling from what President Joe Biden had in 2020 when he won the state with 52.8% of the vote.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton just narrowly won the state over Trump, with 46.8% of the vote to his 46.5%, according to RealClear Polling.
Emerson’s new poll found that a majority of New Hampshire voters (53%) have a favorable view of Harris, while 47% have an unfavorable view of the vice president. Trump was found to have a 47% favorability rating in the state, with 53% of those surveyed having an unfavorable view of him.
“Harris’ margin among women is similar to that of Biden in 2020 – however, male voters have shifted about two points toward Trump,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In addition, Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 support among independent voters, who break for Harris by 13 points, but broke for Biden by about double that amount.”
Harris 50%, Trump 47% in ongoing poll coverage from Tipp
Democratic presidential candidate Harris leads Republican presidential candidate Trump by three percentage points in Tipp’s Tracking Poll as of Friday morning.
The poll of 1,260 likely voters conducted between Oct. 21 and Oct. 23 shows Harris leading 50% to 47% with a 2.8% margin of error.
According to Tipp, both candidates have fluctuated in a range of three points over the last 10 days.
“This steady yet small margin suggests a volatile electorate, where every percentage point matters,” Tipp noted.
Bloomberg swing state polling shows candidates in a tie
The candidates are statistically tied among likely voters in seven swing states, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll out Wednesday night.
Harris barely leads Trump 49.1% to 48.5% across all swing states, within the one percentage point margin of error. The data was taken from a poll that surveyed 5,308 registered voters from Oct. 16 to Oct. 20 in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
“Harris outperforms her rival in the poll on some personal attributes that may help her with those disaffected Republicans. When asked which candidate is best described as mentally fit, honest and compassionate, swing-state likely voters chose Harris by wide margins,” Bloomberg reported, countered by findings that more voters find Trump experienced, patriotic and a strong leader.
Historic gap between men and women defines Harris v. Trump
The gender gap is getting wider and deeper, recent polling has continued to show.
In the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll, women decisively backed Harris, 53% to 36%. That’s a mirror image of men’s overwhelming support for Trump, 53% to 37%. If those margins hold until Election Day, it would be the biggest disparity since a gender gap emerged more than four decades ago, in 1980.
Men and women alike volunteer that the economy and inflation are the most important issues this year, though men rank it higher, at 34% compared with 26% for women.
After that, women rate abortion and women’s rights a strong second, at 17%. Men rank abortion and women’s rights at a distant seventh, cited by only 2%.
Things to keep in mind about polling
The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.
When a candidate’s lead is “inside” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to Pew Research Center.
Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.
This article has been updated to add new information.
Contributing: Susan Page, Maya Marchel Hoff, Sudiksha Kochi, USA TODAY
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Presidential election polls 2024: Latest surveys on Harris vs. Trump
