Republican and Democratic candidates for Bucks County’s municipal, school board and county races might have to work a little harder to court that independent vote ahead of the 2025 election.
In 22 of the last 38 weeks, third-party and unaffiliated voters have outnumbered both major parties for new registrations. Third-party registrations have led every week since July 21, according to a review of Pennsylvania Department of State data.
New voters don’t make up a large portion of the county’s entire voter rolls: Only approximately 6,334 (1.3%) of the 480,196 people registered to vote in Bucks County signed up in 2025, according to the data.
A voter fills out their ballot on Primary Day at Belmont Hills Elementary School in Bensalem on May 20, 2025.
Still, the roughly 85,577 voters registered to third parties make up almost 18% of the county’s voter rolls, and that rate can be higher in more localized races. Approximately 22.7% of voters in New Hope and more than 18% of Central Bucks School District’s 93,811 voters have bucked both major parties.
Those smaller districts are paramount in a municipal election, where voters choose not just county row offices and judge seats, but also who leads their municipal government and school boards.
While this is the first election since the Republicans won one of the most contentious presidential elections in U.S. history last November, Democrats saw sweeping and historic wins in the 2023 municipal election.
A recent poll by Upswing Research & Strategy, on behalf of the Democratic PAC Bucks United, suggests that likely voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans and a general souring on Trump less than a year after he narrowly won the county.
Bucks County Republicans outnumber Democrats on paper
That poll, first reported by Politico, might suggest a general enthusiasm for the Democrats. But the Republicans still maintain a lead in total voters over every other party in Bucks County.
There were 202,416 registered Republicans in Bucks County as of Sept. 22, a lead of 10,213 voters compared to 192,203 Democrats registered.
Democrats led Republicans by a little less than 10,000 voters during the 2016 election, but that lead grew to as much as 10,258 voters by the 2020 election before it began dwindling over the next four years.
The attempted assassination of then-candidate Trump in Butler County last July preceded a major spike of new Republican registrations.
A previous analysis of voter data at the time showed party-switching also helped with those gains. Current voter data suggests that the momentum in picking up new voters has slowed even more for Republicans.
Of the 6,334 voters who have registered in Bucks County this year, only 29% are Republican compared to 33% Democrat and 37% to other parties.
Democrats have seen their statewide lead over Republicans shrinking since 2015, with voters leaving the party a higher rate than Republicans left the GOP, according to an analysis of voter trends by the Erie-Times News, part of the USA TODAY Network.
Out of the 394,229 currently registered voters in Bucks County who voted in 2024, approximately 8,051 have switched their parties since then.
Overall, Republicans have gained approximately 955 voters, third-party voters have increased their ranks by 174 and Democrats have lost 1,129 voters overall.
Regardless of how many people have registered to vote, what matters more is who actually shows up to the polls on election day or by mailing in ballots.
What is turnout like for a municipal election?
This year’s municipal election is set for Nov. 4. Municipal election turnout is typically lower than a general or midterm year..
Approximately 82% of voters in Bucks County turned out to vote in 2024, and the 2022 midterm saw almost 66% voter turnout, according to historic data on the Bucks County Board of Elections website.
Compare that to the 42.5% turnout in 2023 and 40% turnout in 2021, two of the highest years for municipal elections since 2003, as recorded in county data.
Approximately 43% of the 446,563 current voters who registered in or before 2023 voted in the last municipal election. Democrats made up 46% of those voters, Republicans made up 44% of them and third-party voters made up 10% of them.
Since voter rolls are updated regularly and anyone can remove their name at any time, participation rates and recorded turnout will be different.
The couch is always on the ballot, and the ones who choose not to vote can have an impact on the outcome of elections.
Of the 57% of voters who chose not to vote in the 2023 election that washed a “blue wave” over Bucks County, 41% were Republicans, 37% were Democrats and 22% were third party.
Of the 79,738 voters who were registered but didn’t vote in the 2024 election when Trump beat Harris by 291 votes, 39% were Democrats, 33% were Republicans and 27% were independents.
The last day to register to vote in the 2025 municipal election is Oct. 20.
You can register to vote, check your registration status and find other election information by visiting www.buckscounty.gov or pavoterservices.pa.gov.
Chris Ullery is a data reporter for the Bucks County Courier Times and The Intelligencer. He can be reached at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: Bucks County voter registration data shows leads for 2025 election
