It was a top-10 matchup in January and it will be a top-10 matchup on Sunday’s regular-season finale between No. 3 Michigan and No. 8 Michigan State.
But the fierce Mitten State rivals aren’t playing for anything materially in Ann Arbor: The Wolverines already locked up the Big Ten title and NCAA Tournament seedings are all but set for the two of them.
What they are playing for, however, is the pride and history of this rivalry. A Wolverines win would give them the best record a Big Ten team has seen in 50 years, while the Spartans seek vengeance for their 83-71 loss to Michigan on Jan. 30.
The Wolverines opened as 1.5-point favorites in that game, a far cry from the 10.5 points they are laying on the Spartans here.
Michigan State vs. Michigan odds, prediction
Forward Yaxel Lendeborg powered the Wolverines with a double-double of 26 points and 12 rebounds in addition to Elliot Cadeau’s 17 and Morez Johnson’s 12. Beyond Michigan’s balance, Michigan State was cold throughout the first half, missing 14 of its first 18 shots and committing 11 turnovers to lend the Wolverines an 18-point lead.
The Spartans answered in the second half, however, with a 13-2 run and even briefly took the lead Jeremy Fears scored off a steal to go up 57-55. The sophomore point guard finished with a career-high 31 points.
Fears’ offensive confidence has flourished this season into leading the Big Ten in assists with 9.1. His elite court vision and high usage of over 31 minutes per night keeps him involved in over half of Michigan’s baskets.
Sunday will mark the final say between Fears and Lendeborg in their race for Big Ten Player of the Year as the college basketball’s No. 6 and No. 3 ranked players, per KenPom.
The Wolverines snapped a seven-game win streak for the Spartans last time, but Michigan State’s current five-game win streak has been their best basketball of the campaign. They rank No. 7 in overall power rating, per Bart Torvik, in that span.
It’s an uphill climb on Michigan’s building, though if there’s anything you can expect from Tom Izzo’s teams, it’s tough defense and clock drainage. The Spartans have allowed only 67 points per night and are No. 9 overall in KemPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. What does that mean? It’s difficult to post double-digit wins against teams that defend on that level, especially when you’re a familiar conference opponent.
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They also have an edge in controlling possessions by cleaning the glass. They’re the nation’s third-best squad in rebound margin (+12.0), pulling down 40.3 rebounds per game. Forward Jaxon Kohler spearheads that effort, having collected 9.2 rebounds per game, good for the second-most in the Big Ten, with 12 double-doubles on the books.
It’s going to be a hostile environment. That said, Michigan State has nothing to lose, so I’m expecting a sharper 40 minutes and a closer game from them and a closer result.
THE PLAY: Michigan State (-110, bet365)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
