Democratic New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill is set to beat her Republican rival Jack Ciattarelli in the upcoming election for governor, according to a poll.
According to a SurveyUSA poll, released the day after Ciattarelli and Sherrill secured their respective nominations on Wednesday, the Democrat led his GOP rival by 13 percentage points.
The Context
Along with Virginia, New Jersey is one of the two states holding gubernatorial elections this year to replace New Jersey’s incumbent Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, who has a term-limit.
The Republicans have not won a gubernatorial election in New Jersey since 2013 and has voted for a Democrat in every presidential election since 1988. But the GOP has seen increasing success in the state in recent years, with Trump increasing his vote share by 10 points in 2024. This was the best showing by a GOP presidential nominee in two decades.
AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib, Mike Catalini, file
What To Know
Ciattarelli is a former New Jersey state representative who has said he would end any sanctuary policies protecting immigrants without permanent legal status. Sherrill is a United States representative who worked in the navy and as a federal prosecutor.
According to the SurveyUSA poll of 785 adults, 51 percent of likely voters said they’d support Sherrill in the November general election, compared to 38 percent who said they’d back Ciattarelli. The poll was conducted between May 28 and May 30.
However, a previous survey by the same pollster found that 40 percent of Garden State voters have a favorable view of Ciattarelli, while 41 percent had the same view of Sherrill. There was a larger gap between the two candidates when it comes to their negative ratings, with 29 percent of voters having an unfavorable view of Sherrill, compared to 36 percent who have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican.
What People Are Saying
Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, previously told Newsweek that while Democrats are the majority party in the state. “It is certainly possible that New Jersey could elect a Republican governor in November. [Incumbent] Governor [Phil] Murphy was the first Democrat to be reelected in more than 40 years, and in that same span, three Republican governors were elected and reelected.
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: “The Great State of New Jersey has a very important Primary coming up on Tuesday. Get Out and Vote for Jack Ciattarelli, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement! His Opponents are going around saying they have my Endorsement, which is not true, I don’t even know who they are! We can’t play games when it comes to Elections, and New Jersey is a very important State that we must WIN. The whole World is watching. Vote for Jack Ciattarelli to, MAKE NEW JERSEY GREAT AGAIN!”
What Happens Next
The election takes place on November 4. Five third-party or independent candidates are also running for the seat.
