Polling expert Nate Silver said he sees “real movement” toward former President Donald Trump in recent polling data, signaling a shift in key swing states ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
Silver’s analysis, based on his presidential model that tracks polling data and electoral trends, indicates that Trump now has a better chance of winning the Electoral College than Vice President Kamala Harris.
“Harris’s lead in national polls is down to 2.3 points from a peak of 3.5 on October 2. The race remains a toss-up, but we’re at a point where we can be pretty confident this is real movement and not statistical noise,” Silver posted on X (formerly Twitter) on Friday.
According to the Silver Bulletin model, Trump has a 50.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College compared to Harris’ 49.5 percent, despite Harris having a 75 percent chance of winning the popular vote.
This is the first time Trump has had a lead in the model since September 19.
Slaven Vlasic/Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Although the change might seem minor, Silver warned against downplaying its significance.
“Recently, the daily shifts have mostly worked in Trump’s favor,” he noted. These subtle but steady movements, he added, could be enough to affect the race as Election Day approaches.
A scenario in which no candidate secures a majority in the Electoral College remains a slim possibility.
The numbers Silver cited are based on 40,000 simulations run by his model.
Trump has gained on Harris following several weeks of strong polling numbers in swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. These states were pivotal in Trump’s 2016 victory and 2020 loss, and they will once again likely determine the election’s outcome.
Silver emphasized Friday that the election “remains an exceptionally close race.”
His model shows that Trump has gained 1.6 percentage points in Wisconsin, 0.9 points in Michigan, and 0.4 points in Pennsylvania over the past week. While these changes may seem modest, Silver’s analysis suggests they could be a positive sign for Trump as he looks to close the gap with Harris.
Known for his work with the poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight before launching the Silver Bulletin on Substack, Silver labeled the race between Harris and Trump a “toss-up” in August.
That came just weeks after he predicted in the same newsletter that Trump was likely to win against then-presumptive Democratic nominee, President Joe Biden.
Silver’s popular vote forecast has shown Harris leading Trump by one to 2.5 percentage points for most of the campaign. His presidential race model runs simulations using state-by-state polling data, accounting for the inherent uncertainty and variability of the polls.
