Tomorrow, voters in New Jersey and Virginia will take up their quadrennial role as national political bellwethers. The gubernatorial races in both states should favor Democrats, although both states have seen shades of purple emerge in recent years.
New Jersey has long been a reliably blue state — last voting for a Republican presidential candidate in 1988 — whereas Virginia has gone for the Democratic presidential candidate in all five elections since 2004.
However, just three years ago in New Jersey, Republican Jack Ciattarelli came within 3 points of upsetting incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) over discontent with the cost of living and taxes.
In Virginia, voters elected Republican Glenn Younkin as governor, and the state’s 11 House seats are almost perfectly divided at six for Democrats and five for Republicans.
These races, particularly New Jersey, may be closer than some would expect, as Democrats continue to struggle with the weakness of their brand. Indeed, Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s (D-N.J.) lead over Ciattarelli currently sits at roughly 4 points (49 percent to 45 percent) according to the RealClearPolitics aggregator.
However, two recent polls had the race even narrower: Polling firm Co/Efficient had Sherrill’s lead at 1 point (48 percent to 47 percent), and The Hill-Emerson poll had Sherrill ahead by 2 points (50 percent to 48 percent). At the same time, late last week, Fox News had Sherrill up by 7 points and Quinnipiac had Sherrill ahead by 8 points.
As we noted last month in these pages, Sherrill will have to find a way to overcome dissatisfaction towards New Jersey’s high cost of living, burdensome regulations and rising energy costs. On those issues, it’s a decisively mixed bag.
Although a Rutgers-Eagleton poll showed Sherrill leading 50 percent to 45 percent, it also showed Ciattarelli with a 14-point lead on who is better to address crime, a 7-point lead on taxes and a 6-point lead on managing the economy. For her part, Sherill held considerable leads on healthcare (15 points) and handling the state’s schools (7 points).
Ciattarelli’s lead on pocketbook issues is critical. A majority (52 percent) of New Jersey voters ranked the economy and cost of living — issues he leads on — as the most important issue facing the state, according to The Hill-Emerson poll.
Taken together, this explains why Sherrill’s lead is narrower than expected.
Underscoring the role these elections, particularly New Jersey’s, will play as a bellwether was one interesting finding from the Rutgers poll.
Asked whether President Trump will be a factor in voters’ choices, nearly two-thirds (66 percent) of voters — including 85 percent of Democrats and 62 percent of independents — said he would be.
Trump has seen his popularity improve in the Garden State in recent years. He lost the state by just 6 points in 2024 after losing by 16 in 2020, but his approval rating remains underwater.
Just 41 percent approve of the president’s job, versus a slight majority (51 percent) disapproving, according to an Emerson College poll from early October, and this is undoubtedly helping Sherrill.
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former U.S. representative, should have a considerably easier time than her colleague in New Jersey. Running against incumbent Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R), Spanberger has consistently held larger leads than Sherrill in the Garden State, currently sitting at 7 points up in RealClearPolitics’ aggregator.
Further, Spanberger’s lead has typically been higher in individual polls, such as the most recent Roanoke College survey where the former representative led by 10 points.
The most interesting thing to watch in Virginia will be the impact of attorney general candidate Jay Jones’s texting scandal, which could result in a split ticket.
Polls conducted after the resurfacing of 2022 texts in which Jones wished violence on Republicans show that it has had a notable impact, especially as the issue of political violence increasingly enters the mainstream.
Three-quarters of Virginia voters said they’ve heard about Jones’s texts, with “over half” saying it made them less likely to vote for him, according to a Wason Center poll reported by ABC news.
Spanberger has largely avoided being penalized for a tepid condemnation and her refusal to genuinely distance herself from the embattled attorney general candidate’s abhorrent texts, but it does not appear to be hurting her.
Election dynamics in Virginia are also starkly different than New Jersey, which should benefit Spanberger. The state’s economy is dominated by the federal government, including government employees. The 1-2 combination of DOGE and a prolonged government shutdown have become lightning rods, and it’s likely that Virginia voters want new leadership.
Ultimately, should the two Democrats win in New Jersey and Virginia, that would be a promising sign in an off-election year and ahead of next year’s midterms.
Conversely, if there is an upset or a drastic underperformance, it will only deepen Democrats’ disarray and be a further reminder of the party’s fall.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”
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