Week 4 brought another major reshuffling to the NFL futures market, with a few preseason contenders already in serious trouble and several new names surging up the board.
The Texans and Chargers saw their playoff odds crater, the Super Bowl market shifted again, and a hyped wide receiver continued his rapid climb in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race.
Carnell Tate surges in OROY market
Carnell Tate has been one of the biggest movers in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race through four weeks.
The Titans receiver entered the season as more of a secondary contender, but his odds have tightened considerably after a breakout start that included 145 receiving yards in Week 4.
Tate is now sitting around +450 in the market, behind only the top tier of favorites, after opening closer to +900.
His combination of early production and a growing role in Tennessee’s offense has quickly made him one of the most serious challengers in what had looked like a much more settled rookie race.
Awards markets get shaken up
Josh Allen remains the MVP favorite at roughly +250, but Brock Purdy has surged into second at +400 after throwing 11 touchdowns against one interception during the 49ers’ 4-0 start.
Patrick Mahomes sits around +650, while Trevor Lawrence has climbed into the +800 to +900 range.
On defense, Giants linebacker Arvell Reese has climbed to roughly +230, just behind Dolphins rookie Jacob Rodriguez at around +180.
Jaguars, Vikings become playoff-market darlings
While Houston and Los Angeles cratered, Jacksonville and Minnesota have made some of the biggest moves in the opposite direction.
The Jaguars’ playoff odds have jumped from +105 in the preseason to -490 at DraftKings Sportsbook after a 3-1 start. Minnesota is right behind, moving from +154 to -290 after beginning 4-0.
San Francisco and Kansas City have also surged, with the 49ers moving from -146 to -1000 and the Chiefs from -205 to -900 to make the playoffs.
Jacksonville is also now -250 to win the AFC South at DraftKings, after entering the season at +245, a dramatic shift with Houston sitting winless.
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Super Bowl board reshuffles
The Rams moved back to the top of the Super Bowl market after rallying past the Eagles, sitting at +650, with the Bills close behind despite their first loss of the season against the Patriots.
Baltimore and San Francisco are around +850, followed by Kansas City and Seattle.
The Jags have made one of the most notable jumps, shortening to 15/1 after improving to 3-1 on the season, while Philadelphia has drifted to 24/1 following back-to-back losses.
Houston has dropped all the way to 45/1, and the Chargers have essentially fallen off the contender board altogether after their 0-4 start.
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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.
