The NFL Week 8 slate offers many opportunities in the player props markets, and I’ve got my sights set on three under-the-radar targets going over their receiving lines.
I went 3-1 on my picks last week, bringing my season record to 16-3. Overall, I’m 61-43 on player props this year for 21.77 units of profit.
All of my picks are tracked in the Action Network app at Wayne_Bets.
Best bets: Week 8 NFL player props
Cedric Tillman over 36.5 receiving yards (-120, DraftKings)
Ravens vs. Browns, 1 p.m. ET
I circled this one after the Browns lost to the Bengals last week.
With Amari Cooper off to Buffalo, second-year wideout Tillman played a featured role in the offense with a 31.3% first-read target share and 36.7% air-yard share.
It resulted in eight catches on 12 targets for 81 yards, and it’s simply not being priced appropriately by the books this week.
The Ravens also have a pass-funnel defense, ranking fourth against the run by DVOA but 18th against the pass, including 28th against WR1s.
Marlon Humphrey hasn’t been practicing this week, and if he misses Sunday’s game or isn’t at full strength, that would only further boost Tillman’s upside.
I expect Jameis Winston to give Tillman plenty of opportunities through the air as a featured weapon in Cleveland’s passing offense.
De’Von Achane over 23.5 receiving yards (-110, bet365)
Cardinals vs. Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET
Tua Tagovailoa is returning as Miami’s starting quarterback this week, just in time to face a dreadful Arizona pass defense that ranks 29th by DVOA.
The receiving lines for Tyreek Hill (83.5) and Jaylen Waddle (51.5) have been adjusted accordingly, but Achane’s projection remains flat and doesn’t reflect the role he had in the passing game when Tagovailoa was healthy.
According to Fantasy Points Data, Achane had an 18.4% target share and an elite 39% target per route run rate through the first two weeks.
He ran 49% of his routes from the slot or out wide and essentially operated as the WR3 in the offense. That role resulted in 14 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown.
Achane is priced at over/under 3.5 receptions, and he’s cleared 23.5 receiving yards in seven of nine career games with Tagovailoa where he’s received at least three receptions.
This is as easy as it gets for a pass-defense matchup in Tagovailoa’s return, and I expect Achane to benefit immensely.
Troy Franklin over 29.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
Panthers vs. Broncos, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Broncos’ rookie wide receiver is beginning to emerge as an integral part of their offense after a career-high five catches for 50 yards last week.
Franklin led the team with a 32% air-yard share and 23% target share, and Sean Payton is designing opportunities for him to get the ball; he had a sky-high rate of 29% on targets per route run last week.
The Panthers rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, per FTN, and while the Broncos could probably win this game by relying on their defense and running the ball for four quarters, I believe Payton will use this opportunity to continue building chemistry between college teammates Bo Nix and Franklin.
The Panthers rank eighth in zone-coverage rate, and Franklin has been more efficient against zone than man this season.
Betting on the NFL?
Betting on the NFL?
Carolina also allows the eighth-most deep passing yards, and 40% of Franklin’s target volume has come on deep passes.
(Keep in mind that lines move throughout the week, sometimes drastically, so if you need help on whether numbers are still playable, hit me up on X at @wayne_sports_.)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
