New York City’s Democratic primary for mayor is coming down to the wire, with dueling polls painting starkly different pictures of the race’s outcome. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani are locked in a two-man battle that could reshape the city’s political future—and signal the direction of the Democratic Party in the Trump era.
What to Know:
- A new Emerson College poll shows Mamdani narrowly defeating Cuomo in a ranked-choice simulation after eight rounds, despite trailing in the first round.
- A HarrisX poll commissioned by a pro-Cuomo super PAC shows Cuomo winning by 23 points in the first round and clinching the race in round seven.
- Mamdani’s support has surged from 1% to 32% over five months, while Cuomo’s numbers have remained steady.
- Ranked choice voting allows voters to rank up to five candidates; the lowest-ranked are eliminated in rounds until one reaches 50%.
- Other candidates include Comptroller Brad Lander, City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, and former Comptroller Scott Stringer.
- Cuomo has emphasized experience and public safety, while Mamdani has focused on affordability and progressive reforms.
- Polls are open today from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. Results may take weeks due to the ranked choice tabulation process.
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Mamdani’s chances of winning surges in betting markets but Cuomo still favored to win
Zohran Mamdani’s chances of winning the New York City mayoral primary have surged in betting markets in recent days, although Andrew Cuomo remains the favorite.
Around this time last month, markets Polymarket and Kalshi had Cuomo at around 80 percentage points ahead of newcomer Mamdani. But Cuomo’s chances have slipped as Mamdani’s have risen.
The biggest drop occurred in the past 48 hours when Cuomo slipped from a 72 percent chance of winning, to just 45 percent on Polymarket, and 77 percent to 51 on Kalshi.
Meanwhile, Mamdani’s chances soared in the past two days, jumping from 18.5 percent to 37 on Polymarket, and 24.1 percent to 49 on Kalshi.
Map shows boroughs where early voting surged
New final polls graphic shows its a tight race
Zohran Mamdani’s chances of beating Andrew Cuomo as New Yorkers vote—Polls
New Yorkers are casting their ballots in New York City’s mayoral primary on Tuesday as polls point to a tight race between former Governor Andrew Cuomo and State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani whose campaign has surged in recent weeks.
Cuomo held a lead in most polls leading up to Tuesday’s primary, though his support waned as Mamdani consolidated the more progressive vote. Notably, New York City uses ranked choice voting—meaning voters will rank their top candidates. In each “round,” the candidate with the lowest percentage will be eliminated until a candidate hits a majority.
An Emerson College poll released on Monday showed Mamdani with a lead over Cuomo in the final round of ranked choice voting.
The poll showed Cuomo with a slight lead on the first round of voting—36.4 percent to Mamdani’s 33.7 percent. But after eight rounds of ranked choice, Mamdani consolidated support from other candidates to have a slight lead, 51.8 percent to Cuomo’s 48.2 percent.
The poll surveyed 833 Democratic primary voters from June 18-20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Read in full from Andrew Stanton on Newsweek.
When can we expect the primary results?
In-person Election Day voting ends at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday and results are expected to be announced later this evening.
In the 2024 general election, the first results were reported just one minute after the polls closed.
By 12.25 a.m. around 90 percent of the total ballots had been counted and reported.
Early voting surges in NYC mayoral primary
The number of early voters in the New York City mayoral primary surged to more than double the total early votes in the 2021 primary.
The city surpassed the last primary number in early voters within just six days, as the Democrats urged voters to get to the polls early.
Celebrities including Em Rata and SNL’s Bowen Yang throw support behind Mamdani
Mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani has been showing off his celebrity supporters as the race for Mayor of New York City heats up.
On his Instagram page, he shared messages of support from stars including model Emily Ratajkowski, known as Em Rata by fans, and Saturday Night Live actor Bowen Yang on Tuesday.
In one clip, Ratajkowski appeared with Mamdani, in a Zohran shirt, as she urged New Yorkers to vote.
“This election is going to be decided by young voters… your vote really matters. Go ahead, get out there, we know it’s hot, but the time is now.”
Is the financial capital of the world about to elect a socialist mayor?
As New York City prepares for a consequential mayoral primary Tuesday, a generational and ideological rift inside the Democratic Party has exploded into public view.
Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old Democratic Socialist and state assemblyman, has surged in the polls to become a serious threat to former governor Andrew Cuomo, a symbol of the party’s old guard. What was once assumed to be a smooth comeback for Cuomo has become a defining test of youth-driven insurgency, progressive momentum and the Democratic establishment’s grip on power.
With the Democratic primary vote set for June 24, the contest pits Cuomo, 67, who resigned from the governorship in disgrace amid sexual harassment allegations, against Mamdani, a first-term assemblyman and son of Indian and Ugandan immigrants, who is campaigning to freeze rents, eliminate bus fares, and raise taxes on the wealthy.
Read in full from Jesus Mesa on Newsweek.
