Democrats at the national level were soundly defeated in all seven presidential swing states when voters went to the polls ten weeks ago. But Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House is just one part of the story.
Down-ballot, Democratic candidates in statewide contests consistently won more votes than the top of the ticket, allowing Democrats to eke out U.S. Senate wins in Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, and heralding the return of ticket-splitting, a phenomenon that had largely vanished in recent elections — until 2024.
Arizona may have illustrated the situation most vividly, as both Trump and Democratic Senate candidate Ruben Gallego won more than 50 percent of voters. Gallego, who had been a House member, defeated Republican Kari Lake by a little over 80,000 votes in the state. Several weeks after the election, Raphael Chavez-Fernandez, who is Gallego’s chief of staff and was one of the top strategists on his campaign team, spoke with TPM about some of what worked for them in an otherwise brutal year for Democrats.
Chavez-Fernandez credited their win, in part, to focusing on voters’ quality of life and affordability along with robust outreach efforts. But perhaps most important was the team’s careful decisionmaking around when to align with the administration of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris —and when to publicly break with it. Chavez-Fernandez described it as a “juggling act.”
“From our internal polling … he was losing support,” Chavez-Fernandez said of Biden, adding, “We had to make a decision on what issues are we going to align ourselves with and what issues are we not going to align ourselves with.”
Biden ended his own campaign last July and endorsed Harris amid worries about his age. Democrats saw some improvement in public polls, but, according to post-election interviews with Harris’ advisors, they remained consistently behind in internal surveys.
One key factor that was widely seen as a driving force behind Trump’s win is the impact of post-pandemic inflation and voters’ resultant economic anxiety. While Biden and his allies have aggressively defended his economic record and pointed to several metrics including job growth and the fact the inflation spike was ultimately curbed to argue he left behind an economy that’s “the best in the world and stronger than ever for all Americans,” it’s clear that message did not resonate. A slew of pre-election surveys and exit polls indicated many voters were concerned about the economy under Biden and some saw this as the most important issue in the race.
Chavez-Fernandez said Gallego was acutely aware of voters’ dissatisfaction and fears about their finances. During the campaign, they sought to highlight work Gallego was doing to push legislation and press other leaders on issues that addressed affordability and day-to-day living. This included everything from confronting ticketing fees at concerts and events to looking for improvements in long wait times for passport renewals.
“I call it a focus on quality of life, like a whole 360-degree approach to a person’s living. What can Ruben do to improve life? What can he do to make it more affordable?” Chavez-Fernandez explained. “It allowed us to demonstrate an awareness of people’s financial anxiety. It allowed us to push back on the perception that we’re to blame for high prices and pinched budgets. … We wanted to build out this consumer-advocate fighter brand of Ruben.”
This was one area where Gallego was fairly in line with the Biden administration. Both he and Biden opposed a grocery chain merger that could have led to higher prices. Gallego campaigned on expanding an insulin price cap for seniors that was part of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act to everyone in the state. He also introduced legislation that built on an effort to crackdown on so-called junk fees that was initiated by the Biden White House.
“We picked and chose which lane to go down,” Chavez-Fernandez said.
A key area where Chavez-Fernandez said they decided to “part ways” was the border. During last year’s campaign, Gallego publicly criticized Biden and Harris for not doing enough on border security. According to Chavez-Fernandez, Gallego also made that case for stronger enforcement behind the scenes. According to Chavez-Fernandez, Gallego’s position was based on visits to Arizona’s border with Mexico.
“Ruben and I, we went to the border at least a dozen times over the last two years and had several meetings with stakeholders, and it was clear to us that this was something that they strongly felt, and we had to do something about it,” said Chevez-Fernandez. “I could tell you how many phone calls we had with the administration or just other members of our party about how we … have to be stronger on this effort.”
During his campaign, Gallego aired ads in English and Spanish that touted his efforts to bring in more Border Patrol agents and investments for new technology on the frontier. Gallego paired his border pitch with another theme that might seem counterintuitive in the realm of Democratic Party politics — touting efforts to increase police funding and his endorsements from law enforcement unions. This, Chavez-Fernandez said, was exemplary of the “360 approach on the person’s life.”
“We were doing it from all angles including in terms of law enforcement and safety,” Chavez-Fernandez said.
It was also an effort to address what Chavez-Fernandez described as the “very obvious” attacks that could come from the right.
“Republicans telegraph this. They talk about it all the time, and we were very aware of it,” Chavez-Fernandez said of a slew of issues including inflation, crime, and the border. “We were not going to allow that to dictate and define Ruben. We were going to have a full on offensive plan about the border, about law enforcement — or any perceived weaknesses of a Democrat.”
The approach might seem counterintuitive when viewed through a national lens, but the election results in Arizona show the state has a mix of what are typically seen as progressive and conservative priorities. Arizona was a pivotal part of Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020. This time around, along with splitting the ticket between Trump and Gallego, a majority of Arizonans backed both abortion protections and a tough border bill likely to step up deportations and arrests.
Arizona Democratic candidate for US Senate, Representative Ruben Gallego cheers bull riding during a “Juntos por Arizona” (Together for Arizona) Get Out the Vote Rodeo at Rancho Ochoa in Phoenix, Arizona, November 1, 2024. (Photo by Rebecca NOBLE / AFP) (Photo by REBECCA NOBLE/AFP via Getty Images)
Gallego also felt that border security was important to Latinos, who make up over 20 percent of Arizona’s electorate.
“Latinos actually do want some form of border security. They want to feel protected. They want to feel that their family’s protected,” Chavez-Fernandez said, adding, “They also will support some shape of a pathway to citizenship, but we can’t ignore the other part of it.”
That doesn’t necessarily fit with longtime political conventional wisdom, which viewed the community as broadly pro-immigration in light of the fact the majority of migrants come from Latin American countries. But it’s more nuanced than that, Chavez-Fernandez said.
“Strong enforcement at the border and at the workplace with a path to citizenship is — I don’t want to say a winning combo — but you can do it. It helps us minimize our losses,” Chavez said of the immigration issue.
Gallego articulated that message, including in one of his TV spots aimed at Latino voters where he leaned into his own background.
“As the son of immigrants, I will always offer respect and dignity to immigrants, I will always defend our DREAMers. In Congress, I helped to get hundreds of new border agents, and technology for the security of Arizona,” Gallego, whose parents are Colombian and Mexican, said in Spanish. “But, to solve the issues at the border, more than fights, we need Democrats and Republicans working together to make real solutions. And that’s what I’ll do as your senator.”
There are major questions about messages and outreach to Latino voters for Democrats in the wake of the disastrous election cycle. A pronounced rightward shift in the community was a key factor in Trump’s victory.
Along with more nuanced messaging, Chavez-Fernandez said he and Gallego felt targeted outreach would be a key to success with Latino voters. Chavez-Fernandez is the son of undocumented immigrants from Peru, who ultimately obtained citizenship. He is adamant that their upbringings helped him and Gallego understand the community’s concerns about affordability. It also inspired them to stage some specific, tailored events including hosting parties for the quadrennial Copa América soccer tournament, bringing a coffee cart to the early morning shift change at a work site, and appearances at rodeo events, boxing matches, and “autobody shops with the low-rider community.”
“All very specific environments to touch Latino voters that, quite frankly, I don’t know enough folks are doing,” Chavez-Fernandez said.
Putting together these events required shaking off concerns from consultants who wanted Gallego to focus on staged speeches, roundtables, and town halls.
“Ruben and I, we understand our community, and you can’t just do a traditional … rally. That’s great, but we have to do more things to make them feel comfortable,” Chavez-Fernandez said.
Overall, Chavez-Fernandez said he believes Democrats need to do more to pay attention to Latino voters with time, messages that address their concerns in a more complex way, and these tailored events.
“Democrats quite frankly have just taken advantage of Latinos. … They’ve just taken them for granted,” Chavez-Fernandez said.
For his part, Gallego praised his chief of staff’s approach and work ethic.
“Raphael’s ability to remain calm and collected under immense pressure and approach every challenge with clear, strategic thinking ensured we stayed focused throughout the campaign,” Gallego said in an email, adding, “We’re complete opposites in personality, but as one of my trusted advisors, I trust his judgment on matters from broad political strategy to Arizona issues on the ground.”
With President Trump set to take office on Jan. 20, the pair have a new challenge ahead of them. Chavez-Fernandez said it will be the same kind of balancing act they pulled off on the campaign trail.
In the first weeks of the new Congress, Gallego joined other purple-state Democratic senators in supporting the Laken Riley Act, which was initially introduced by Trump-aligned members of Congress. The legislation is fiercely opposed by some immigration advocates and progressives, who argue it gives state officials sweeping powers to challenge federal immigration enforcement decisions they oppose. He’s also eager to push for expansion of the child tax credit, a measure that has growing bipartisan support, but has been blocked by Republicans in the past.
“We had to pick and choose where to align with the Biden administration. We’re going to have to do the same thing with the Trump administration. We cannot be anti-Trump. That’s not going to work,” he explained, later adding, “We can’t be standing on a chair and just … shouting and yelling. … We have to find some sort of middle ground and, quite frankly, Arizonans sent Ruben to the Senate to fight for them, and find compromise, and work with independents and Republicans. That’s exactly what we’re going to do.”
