The Penn State Nittany Lions were the most obvious candidate to benefit from the expanded playoff — they would have qualified for a 12-team field in five of the previous eight seasons — but James Franklin couldn’t have envisioned receiving such a straightforward path to the program’s first national title game in 38 years.
After suffering its only losses — both by one possession — to perhaps the country’s top two teams (Ohio State, Oregon), Penn State opened the playoff with relatively sweat-free wins over SMU and Boise State.
Now, the Nittany Lions enter the semifinal with two extra days of rest — following the postponement of the Sugar Bowl — that Notre Dame needed even more.
After losing star defensive lineman Rylie Mills, the Fighting Irish watched star running back Jeremiyah Love limp off the field with a knee injury in the quarterfinal win over Georgia, leaving him at less than 100 percent in the Orange Bowl.
Even with Love at full strength, he may have just ran faster into a wall. Penn State’s top-five defense just limited Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty to a season-low 3.5 yards per carry after holding SMU to 58 rushing yards in the first round.
The Nittany Lions can again load the box against a run-heavy offense, with no fear of the consequences. Notre Dame ranks 122nd in the nation in yards per completion (10.5), with Riley Leonard averaging 170 yards passing per game.
The Irish advanced past Georgia because of a 17-point explosion in 54 seconds, having been held to six points in the game’s other 59:06. Notre Dame will find it even harder to score in their toughest test of the season, against a defense that has allowed one touchdown in its opponents’ eight red zone trips in the playoff.
Betting on College Football?
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar won’t reward Notre Dame with short fields, having thrown no interceptions in six of his past seven games. The 6-foot-6 target of the nation’s top tight end (Tyler Warren) helps.
The pick: Penn State +1.5 (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)
