STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — He’s known as the greatest presidential predictor of all time, the ‘so-called Nostradamus,’ of presidential elections.
He predicted former President Donald Trump would win in 2016.
In fact, even when polls were stacked against his pick, he correctly predicted every presidential election except one since 1984.
American University Professor Allan Lichtman, who said Vice President Kamala Harris would win her bid for the White House in September when polls were staked against her, said she will became the first female president of the United States.
“Nothing has changed to change my prediction that I made on Sept. 5, in defiance of the polls,” Lichtman said in a YouTube video.
“There is more election anxiety this year than I’ve ever seen, and I go back to Kennedy/Nixon in 1960,” he added.
Prediction Method
Lichtman uses a formula know as “13 Keys to the White House,” which he developed in 1981 along with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
Lichtman uses those 13 criteria to analyze the party that holds the White House’s chances of keeping that control in an election year.
If the White House party is considered successful in eight or more of the “keys,” then the incumbent party is expected to win. If the incumbent party is viewed as a failure in six or more of the criteria the challenger is expected to win, according to USA Today.
Lichtman said the eight keys favoring the Democrats in 2024 include no primary challenger for the incumbent; no third-party challenge; a strong short-term economy; a strong long-term economy; major policy change from the previous (Trump) administration; no social unrest; no scandal, and an uncharismatic challenger who does not appeal across party lines.
Lichtman has called his predication method “the constant northern star of political prediction.”
But he still encourages Americans to vote on Nov. 5.
