The first round of College Football Playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday – and not during a presidential election this time.
It should be one of the weirder first batches in the short history of the CFP, with plenty of room for interpretation and judgment.
Will the committee love records more than resumes – a painful flaw in the past – or will they deep-dive enough to really and truly pay attention to schedule strength now?
It’ll probably be a little bit of both. | @PeteFiutak
CFN Projection for the First College Football Playoff Top 25
Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin (10) motions at the line of scrimmage during the NCAA football game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Nov. 1, 2025.© Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
As a refresher, this is how they do it.
Each committee member submits a top 25 into a system. Then they all meticulously go spot by spot from 25 up to 1, debating and making their case along the way for every one of those top 25 positions.
So, more than the rankings systems you’re used to, like the AP and Coaches polls, there’s more of an A-D-B-C thing happening here.
If there are, say, four teams potentially for one spot, then it goes into a sort of tie-breaker thing like conferences do when they have a regular season record log jam.
Did Team A beat B and C, but lose to D, and … you get the idea.
Having been in the room and gone through the process, I do speak fluent College Football Playoff. I think I have an idea how this will go. However …
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– I’m not sold on the bottom part of the top 25. That could go several different directions. Also …
– How does the ACC glut of okay teams with great records compare to all the Big 12 teams and SEC squads with worse records?
– In general, the committee falls back on records, even though it’s not supposed to this year. With all of that in mind, I wouldn’t be shocked if this is more wildly off than it usually is when I do this for the first time each year.
25 USF Bulls
2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 6-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Florida 18-16
Worst Loss: Memphis 34-31
The win at Florida won’t mean as much as it should in the metrics, but handing North Texas a 63-14 loss will be a big deal. It’ll fit just behind Memphis, at least for this week.
24 Memphis Tigers
2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 8-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: USF 34-31
Worst Loss: UAB 31-24
This might not be as easy as it appears. The win over USF, along with the brand-name win over Arkansas, will get it here, but the UAB loss might be disqualifying, at least from an at-large standpoint.
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23 Tennessee Volunteers
2024 Final CFP Ranking: 7
Record: 6-3
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 8-4
Best Win: Mississippi State 41-34
Worst Loss: Oklahoma 33-27
How much has the committee changed? There’s NOTHING when it comes to good wins – the Vols have yet to beat a team that’s certain to go bowling – but the tough losses to Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma were good enough to slip into the top 25.
22 SMU Mustangs
2024 Final CFP Ranking: 10
Record: 6-3
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Miami 13-12
Worst Loss: Baylor 48-45
SMU is one of the tougher calls. The losses to Wake Forest and Baylor hurt, but beating Clemson – as weakened as it is – and taking down Miami might be just enough to slip into the top 25.
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21 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 8-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Wake Forest 30-29
Worst Loss: NC State 48-36
There’s a problem with the Best Win column – there isn’t one. The schedule is a tad thin, but beating Clemson and Duke will carry enough weight to give the first ranking a boost.
20 Michigan Wolverines
2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Washington 24-7
Worst Loss: Oklahoma 24-13
There isn’t a lot there. If this were Northwestern’s resume, would it be this high? Nah. The Oklahoma and USC losses weren’t particularly close, but, strangely enough, beating New Mexico will factor well in the metrics.
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19 USC Trojans
2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 6-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Michigan 45-31
Worst Loss: Illinois 34-32
This is a homework ranking. Did USC see the Illinois game? That was a crazy-gag loss that shouldn’t be punished too much. Rolling by Michigan is what gets the Trojans here.
18 Miami Hurricanes
2024 Final CFP Ranking: 13
Record: 6-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Notre Dame 27-24
Worst Loss: SMU 26-20
The Hurricanes will be forgiven a wee bit for both losses – the SMU game went to overtime, and Louisville just has the one loss – because the wins over Notre Dame and USF will stand out. Beating Florida and Florida State will factor in – these are humans doing the rankings.
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17 Utah Utes
2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 7-2 Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-3
Best Win: Cincinnati 45-10
Worst Loss: Texas Tech 34-10
It’ll be interesting to see how much the committee loves this team. Utah handed Cincinnati its second loss, blew out Arizona State, and that’s about it. The losses to BYU and Texas Tech aren’t anything to get into a twist over.
16 Missouri Tigers
2024 Final CFP Ranking: 19
Record: 6-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 8-4
Best Win: South Carolina 29-20
Worst Loss: Vanderbilt 17-10
There’s NOTHING in the Mizzou win column to brag about. In the past, the committee didn’t care too much about tight losses to great teams, but it will in this case, with the way the Tigers lost to Bama and Vandy.
Nov 1, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores running back Sedrick Alexander (28) runs for yards during the first half against the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. © Scott Wachter-Imagn Images
15 Vanderbilt Commodores
2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Missouri 17-10
Worst Loss: Texas 34-31
Style points aren’t supposed to matter or be any sort of a factor, but of course they do. The loss to Alabama was far better than the final score, and the late push against Texas is a big deal. Beating LSU holds weight in the room.
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14 Louisville Cardinals
2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 7-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Miami 24-21
Worst Loss: Virginia 30-27
The one loss was close, the wins over Pitt, James Madison, and Miami have teeth, and there’s no reason not to be easily in the top 15.
13 Virginia Cavaliers
2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 8-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Louisville 39-27
Worst Loss: NC State 35-31
Virginia will be helped more after this weekend because of NC State’s win over Georgia Tech – it makes the loss look a little better.
Beating Florida State only means something because of the Nole win over Bama, but handing Louisville its only loss might get the Cavs higher.
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12 Oklahoma Sooners
2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Tennessee 33-27
Worst Loss: Texas 23-6
This is a bundle ranking with Texas. The wins over Michigan and Tennessee will mean everything in a hotel meeting room in Grapevine, Texas – this bunch will know about the John Mateer injury against the Longhorns. However, there’s a hard ceiling on where the Sooners can fit.
11 Texas Longhorns
2024 Final CFP Ranking: 3
Record: 7-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 8-4
Best Win: Oklahoma 23-6
Worst Loss: Florida 29-21
The guess is that the SEC tandem of Texas-Oklahoma will be boosted past the one-loss group of ACC teams. No blame whatsoever for the Ohio State loss, and losing to Florida is offset by taking out both OU and Vanderbilt.
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10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2024 Final CFP Ranking: 5
Record: 6-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: USC 34-24
Worst Loss: Miami 27-24
The 6-0 run will be the main rationale for the high ranking, and it was the way the Irish lost the two games to Miami and Texas A&M that will get credit. This will be a bit of an eye-test rank.
Nov 1, 2025; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders running back Cameron Dickey (8) scores a touchdown in the second quarter against the Kansas State Wildcats at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. © Scott Sewell-Imagn Images
9 Texas Tech Red Raiders
2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 8-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Utah 34-10
Worst Loss: Arizona State 26-22
The wins over Utah and Houston will get the Red Raiders some consideration for being up a little higher, and the loss at ASU is more than forgivable. But for this week, they’ll sit behind the unbeaten BYU team and let Saturday’s game sort it out.
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8 BYU Cougars
2024 Final CFP Ranking: 17
Record: 8-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Utah 24-21
Worst Performance: Colorado 24-21
This is where it starts to get screwy. The 8-0 record, along with a strong win over Utah, should be just enough to get this high up. There’s an off chance the Cougars slip into the top seven, the committee will do a wait-and-see thing with the Texas Tech game up next.
7 Ole Miss Rebels
2024 Final CFP Ranking: 14
Record: 8-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Oklahoma 34-26
Worst Loss: Georgia 43-35
The committee would love to push up the Rebels higher, but they can’t move past Georgia, who can’t be past Alabama. Still, there’s no concern. It’s a good jumping off point.
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6 Georgia Bulldogs
2024 Final CFP Ranking: 2
Record: 7-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Ole Miss 43-35
Worst Loss: Alabama 24-21
The Bulldogs have to be behind Alabama and ahead of Ole Miss. The win over Tennessee will carry enough weight to push for the top five – depending on what the committee thinks of Oregon.
5 Alabama Crimson Tide
2024 Final CFP Ranking: 11
Record: 7-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Georgia 24-21
Worst Loss: Florida State 31-17
Don’t be totally stunned if Alabama checks in at the 4. Wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, and LSU are better than anything Oregon has done, but that loss to Florida State will drag it down a bit for now.
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4 Oregon Ducks
2024 Final CFP Ranking: 1
Record: 7-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Northwestern 34-14
Worst Loss: Indiana 30-20
Where’s the great win? Oregon will get the respect for being Oregon, and it’ll get love for the lone loss being to Indiana, but how much will the win at Penn State matter? (Probably more than we all think.)
3 Texas A&M Aggies
2024 Final CFP Ranking: NR
Record: 8-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Notre Dame 41-40
Worst Performance: Auburn 16-10
The win over Notre Dame in South Bend will carry all the weight. Beating Florida should get more credit than it will, but taking down LSU isn’t anything special now. There’s a chance, though, A&M is No. 2.
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2 Indiana Hoosiers
2024 Final CFP Ranking: 8
Record: 9-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 12-0
Best Win: Oregon 30-20
Worst Performance: Iowa 20-15
Handing Oregon its only loss – and in Eugene – will be the best win by anyone in the first round of the CFP Top 25. Beating Iowa at Iowa helps, and the sheer domination of Illinois will get some to argue that IU should be No. 1.
1 Ohio State Buckeyes
2024 Final CFP Ranking: 6
Record: 8-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 12-0
Best Win: Texas 14-7
Worst Performance: Washington 24-6
This will be about the eye test even more than the resume. The Buckeyes are playing like the best team in college football, and the committee isn’t about to stray from the general consensus
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Related: College Football Rankings Week 11: CFN Top 25 After Wild Shakeup
This story was originally reported by College Football News on Nov 2, 2025, where it first appeared in the Rankings section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
