All of the chips are on the table during “Thursday Night Football” in Week 16.
The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks have what will likely be an NFC West division-deciding matchup.
Sean McVay’s group is a 1.5-point favorite on the road in Seattle in what will certainly feel like a playoff game.
From a betting perspective, McVay is someone who dominates late in the season.
The Rams’ superstar coach is 28-11 straight up and 27-11-1 against the spread in the month of December and has won nine in a row this month.
Since 2021, McVay is 17-3 ATS in December, and when his team is on short rest, his squad typically performs well, going 17-8 ATS.
However, the Rams did not cover against the Seahawks earlier this year, eeking out a two-point victory in Week 11.
Those are your trends to watch, though a credible star coach like McVay will usually get the nod over a second-year coach like Mike Macdonald.
From a statistical perspective, the Seahawks are rated No. 1 in DVOA, ahead of the Rams, who are No. 2 in DVOA.
The Seahawks are allowing 4.5 yards per play, the best in the NFL, while the Rams are averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense, also the best in the league.
Where things get dicey for the Rams is with the Seahawks’ strong pass defense, which is allowing 5.4 yards per pass attempt, by far the best in the league.
So, where is the value side here?
The homefield advantage for the Seahawks might sound daunting to the Rams at face value, but Los Angeles plays in a stadium where they hardly have home fans anyway.
Their stats bear that out as well.
The Rams average five yards per play at home and 4.8 yards per play on the road. Los Angeles also puts up 6.2 yards per play both on the road and at home.
Oddly enough, Seattle’s offense allows 5.5 yards per play at home and 6.5 on the road.
This isn’t to say they perform worse at home; both teams are 11-3 and some of the more elite performers in the NFL this season.
But I think there’s a bit of value to be had in Los Angeles in this critical game.
Let’s target the Rams on the road here +1.5, with my betting model showing a bit of value on that side with a projected score of 22.97 to 20.90 in favor of the road team.
As for a player prop, I project a bit of value on the Seahawks’ top receiver, Jaxson Smith-Njigba. The over/under total for his receiving prop is 84.5 on BetRivers.
If I’m expecting the Rams to win, that means Seattle will be down and playing catch-up, a perfect spot to target a superstar like him to go wild.
Even in a win, Smith-Njigba went for nine catches for 105 yards the last time these two squared up.
Betting on the NFL?
Another line to grab is the over .5 receiving yards (+120, BetMGM) for timeshare running back Zach Charbonet.
Charbonet had two catches for 20 yards two weeks ago against the Falcons, and he received a target last week against the Colts.
Charbonet is over this number in seven of 13 games he’s played in this season, and in a potential shootout, I think he’s worth laddering up to 10+ if you can find the line a bit closer to game time.
THE PLAY: Seahawks +1.5, Jaxson Smith-Njigba over 84.5 (-115, BetRivers) Zach Charbonnet over .5 receiving yards (+12-, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
