I kept trying to get there. In my baseball soul, I believe that the total player is the most valuable element in the game. I favor the guy who helps every day in some way.
And there were moments late this season when I thought Francisco Lindor and Bobby Witt Jr. were the MVPs. If you were an executive and I told you nothing else about your roster except you could take everything Lindor has brought in 2024 (hitting, fielding, baserunning and off the field) or Ohtani in the same categories and the same for Witt vs. Judge, who would you take?
If the answers were Lindor and Witt, shouldn’t that make them the MVPs?
But then Lindor got hurt and somehow Ohtani got more magical. And Aaron Judge kept ending up in sentences with Babe Ruth — and if you are dueling Babe Ruth historically, you probably have it over Bobby Witt Jr. this year.
Ultimately, I just came to believe when we think of the 2024 season, Shohei Ohtani’s name will come up first and then Judge. Perhaps that makes them Most Memorable, but there are plenty of valuable reasons for that.
I actually think Witt has a great case, and picking him second to a player whose 226 OPS-plus is bettered in the Integration Era (since 1947) by only Barry Bonds and Ted Williams is not like saying he is a White Sox utility infielder.
Witt is everything the game should aspire to — the top 1 percent as ranked on Baseball Savant in batting and baserunning value and the top 5 percent in fielding value (all stats are entering the weekend).
If you want to close some of the hitting edge enjoyed by Judge: Witt was plus 19 in stolen bases (31 steals, 12 caught stealing) and Judge was plus 10 (10-for-10) — imagine that gap of nine between the two being added to Witt’s slugging percentage. Witt has hit into four double plays, Judge 22 — imagine adding 18 extra outs to Judge’s batting average.
So it narrows a gap.
But not enough. Not in an age when it is hard to hit as ever, and Judge’s OPS-plus was 126 percent better than league average, 38 points better than Ohtani in second place and 49 points better than the AL runner-up Juan Soto, who I have watched have the best walk year ever by anyone not named Aaron Judge.
Judge can get dinged for defense. But two items: What is the value of him shifting to center so the defensively inferior Soto could more comfortably play Yankee Stadium’s tiny right field? Plus Judge has often pulled up short on outfield walls. He slammed into one last year, tore a ligament in his right big toe, missed a quarter of the season, and the 2023 Yankees were dead without him — that is how valuable he is.
Keeping him upright cannot be overstated. In his four healthy seasons, Judge has finished fourth, second and first for MVP, and now probably first again.
2. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals; 3. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles; 4. Juan Soto, Yankees; 5. Jose Ramirez, Guardians.
AL Anti-MVP
Javier Baez, Tigers
Baez can earn this distinction based merely on his stats (.516 OPS, second worst in the majors, minimum 250 plate appearances) and what is expected of him (making $25 million in 2024 amid a six-year, $140 million pact). But his absence has been a boon for Detroit. He last played on Aug. 22. The Tigers were 62-66. Baez went on the IL with a spine injury. The Tigers followed with an MLB-best 23-8 run.
2. Anthony Rendon, Angels. 3. DJ LeMahieu, Yankees. 4. Eloy Jimenez, White Sox/Orioles. 5. Bo Bichette, Blue Jays.
NL MVP
Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
This is his season. He was part of arguably the biggest free-agent derby ever. He signed the largest contract ever — a heavily deferred, 10-year, $700 million pact. He was ensnared in an illegal gambling scandal in which his translator/friend admitted, among other things, stealing nearly $17 million unbeknownst to Ohtani. As opposed to when he won two AL MVPs with the Angels, Ohtani did not pitch this season as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery.
Yet, he compartmentalized it all to have one of the best offensive seasons ever — more than 50 homers, 50 steals and 400 total bases while leading the NL in on-base percentage, slugging and OPS.
Should a player who does not play the field — and does not counter it by being a starting pitcher too — be the first full-time DH ever to win the MVP? Don Baylor won the AL MVP in 1979 with 65 games at DH. In the AL, when Frank Thomas won back-to-back in 1993-94 and Jason Giambi in 2000, they were designated hitters given gloves and told to stand at first base. Four relievers have won the MVP — so specialists with limited innings/jobs have earned this award.
2. Francisco Lindor, Mets; 3. Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks; 4. William Contreras, Brewers; 5. Willy Adames, Brewers.
NL Anti-MVP
Kris Bryant, Rockies
So the Anti-MVPs are two heroes from the Cubs’ 2016 championship. Bryant was the NL MVP in that magical year. In the first three seasons of his seven-year, $182 million pact with Colorado, Bryant has managed to play just 159 games and produced a minus-1.3 WAR (Baseball Reference). This season Bryant hit .218 with two homers in 37 games.
2. Nolan Arenado/Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals; 3. Tim Anderson, Marlins; 4. Joey Gallo, Nationals; 5. Jeimer Candelario, Reds.
AL Cy Young
Tarik Skubal, Tigers
The lefty returned so well in the second half last season from flexor tendon surgery then looked so great in spring that he was kind of a darling pick to win this award. The hype actually may have undersold Skubal.
Skubal led the AL in ERA, strikeout percentage and was third in batting average against. I will consider to see if a starter benefitted from feasting on bad teams or excelling particularly in his home park. But Skubal had a 2.39 ERA overall. It was 2.86 on the road. It was 2.53 against the 14 teams that were above the league average in runs per game.
In this era, I give lots of points for a starter who defies current strategy, and logs big innings and saves overtaxed bullpens for the lesser starters in the rotation. So Seth Lugo’s MLB-high-tying 204 ²/₃ innings stands out, particularly because the Mets did not believe he had the physicality to endure as a starter.
2. Seth Lugo, Royals; 3. Framber Valdez, Astros; 4. Corbin Burnes, Orioles; 5. Emmanuel Clase, Guardians.
AL Anti-Cy Young
Craig Kimbrel, Orioles
Kimbrel is going to have a fascinating Hall of Fame case. He has among the best regular-season relief stats ever. But multiple organizations have run away from him in the biggest spots. The latest was the pitching-desperate Orioles, who released him in mid-September with a 5.33 ERA.
2. Justin Verlander, Astros; 3. Kenta Maeda, Tigers; 4. Triston McKenzie, Guardians; 5. Clay Holmes, Yankees.
NL Cy Young
Chris Sale, Braves
This also can go down as arguably the transaction of the year — trading nothing (Vaughn Grissom) to Boston, getting the Red Sox to eat $17 million of Sale’s contract then inking the lefty to a two-year, $38 million pact with an $18 million club option for 2026. And it all worked, because after throwing 151 innings the previous four seasons, a finally healthy Sale led the NL in ERA and strikeout percentage.
Sale has seven previous top-six Cy Young finishes but never a win. A Cy here is going to give him a really interesting Hall of Fame case.
2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies; 3. Dylan Cease, Padres; 4. Logan Webb, Giants; 5. Michael King, Padres.
NL Anti-Cy Young
Jordan Montgomery/Eduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks
Arizona retained pretty much every important part of its surprise run to the NL title last year while adding the successful offensive duo of Randall Grichuk and Joc Pederson. But what was supposed to be the big lift were bold signings of Montgomery and Rodriguez for the rotation.
But perhaps the Diamondbacks should stop investing big on free-agent lefty starters. They tried with Madison Bumgarner on a five-year, $85 million pact, and he pitched so poorly he was released early last season — and Arizona is still paying the end of that deal now. That did not dissuade them from doing a four-year, $80 million deal with Rodriguez and — when Montgomery lingered on the market — signing him to a one-year, $25 million accord with a player option for 2025.
That duo between a late start (for Montgomery), injury and ineffectiveness had combined for 34 games (30 starts) with a 6.04 ERA.
2. Walker Buehler/Bobby Miller, Dodgers; 3. Taijuan Walker, Phillies; 4. David Bednar, Pirates; 5. Kyle Hendricks, Cubs.
AL Rookie of the Year
Luis Gil, Yankees
I have no doubt that Gil is the Most Valuable rookie, and I think that the narrative should be part of this discussion.
Because this is where having two main dispensers of WAR are not going to be clarifying. If you are an Orioles fan, I suspect you are going to lead with Fangraphs’ version — where Colton Cowser had 4.0 followed by Austin Wells (3.4), Boston’s Wilyer Abreu (3.1), Cleveland’s Cade Smith (2.7) then Gil (going into his start Saturday) tied with Texas’ Wyatt Langford at 2.6 followed by Oakland closer Mason Miller (2.5).
Conversely, Baseball Reference had Langford leading at 3.6, then Gil (3.5), Abreu (3.4), Cowser (2.9), Miller (2.7), Wells (2.5) and Smith (2.4).
Cowser has been very good. But he has been mainly asked to be a corner outfielder hitting in the back half of the lineup most of the season, where he had produced 23 homers and a 124 OPS plus.
Gil stepped in for the reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole and for those first 2 ¹/₂ months of Cole’s absence pitched like Cole. He has arguably remained one of the 10 best starters in the AL this year.
2. Colton Cowser, Orioles; 3. Cade Smith, Guardians; 4. Austin Wells, Yankees; 5. Mason Miller, A’s.
NL Rookie of the Year
Jackson Merrill, Padres
This is another one in which I am not picking the player I expect to win, but the one who — like Gil — solved a problem brilliantly for a playoff team. Pittsburgh dynamo Paul Skenes probably will win. But in a close race, I would again go with the Most Valuable rookie.
Merrill was a shortstop with little outfield experience. But San Diego had an outfield shortage, notably a center field problem. Merrill, from the outset of the season, solved it— he is a good defender. In an era in which it is tough to hit, as historic as Skenes has been, I would give the edge to a rookie who has hit over the pitcher — a 126 OPS-plus, 24 homers, 16 steals.
And when San Diego took off, Merrill was so central to it. His clutch gene was great — six game-tying or go-ahead homers in the eighth inning or later — tied with Frank Robinson (1956) for the most ever by a player 21 or younger. Merrill’s five game-tying or go-ahead homers in the ninth inning later were three more than anyone else in the majors this year.
2. Paul Skenes, Pirates; 3. Shota Imanaga, Cubs; 4. Jackson Chourio, Brewers; 5. Masyn Winn, Cardinals.
AL Manager of the Year
Stephen Vogt, Guardians
This is really a narrative award year to year: Which team outdid expectations by the most? Let’s honor the manager. But there is more here. Vogt was replacing a legend in Terry Francona. He was guiding a team that when it has been good was so because of starting pitching. But this rotation was broken and not highly effective. Vogt, as a rookie skipper, steered a rotation-deficient, Francona-less group to a division title.
2. A.J. Hinch, Tigers; 3. Matt Quatraro, Royals; 4. Alex Cora, Red Sox; 5. Mark Kotsay, A’s.
NL Manager of the Year
Pat Murphy, Brewers
Cue the narrative. Murphy replaced arguably the best manager in the game in Craig Counsell. Counsell was certainly paid like the best manager — getting a record for the role at five years at $40 million with the Cubs. That Counsell was a hometown boy made good in Milwaukee and now was going to the hated Cubs only raised the heat within the NL Central.
And Counsell’s college coach (Notre Dame) and Brewers bench coach, Murphy, elevated to the top spot and guided a team that traded Corbin Burnes in the offseason, never had Brandon Woodruff, and played the first half without closer Devin Williams and the second without Christian Yelich. Yet, Milwaukee won the NL Central easily.
2. Mike Shildt, Padres; 3. Carlos Mendoza, Mets; 4. Dave Roberts, Dodgers; 5. Brian Snitker, Braves.
