After making gains in almost every state in the 2024 elections, Republicans are now setting their sights on a new battleground: California.
Why It Matters
California has historically been a heavily Democratic state, selecting a Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. But recent polls have indicated the tide could be turning on the Democrats in the Golden State. It comes after the state shifted toward the GOP by 12 points in 2024 compared to 2020, with Donald Trump increasing his vote share in nearly every county in the state. The Republicans also flipped three seats in the state Legislature last year.
If the Democratic Party loses ground in California, it could reshape the state’s leadership as early as 2026, when the next governor will be elected and most of California’s state Legislature will be up for election.
Juliana Yamada/AP
What To Know
Amid the GOP’s recent success in the state, the California Republican Party is now seeking to capitalize on that momentum and break the Democratic supermajority.
A supermajority means holding at least two-thirds of the seats in a legislative body. The Democrats currently hold 90 seats across California’s state Assembly and Senate, amounting to 75 percent of the 120 seats. That means that the Republicans need to pick up seven seats in the Assembly and four in the Senate to break the Democratic supermajority.
Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher of Yuba City told CalMatters that Republicans could target as many as eight Assembly districts in the Central Valley and Southern California to flip next year.
To do that, newly elected California Republican Party Chair Corrin Rankin said at a party convention in Sacramento last weekend that the party will be “going on the offense” and expanding efforts to convert voters in Democratic strongholds like Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area.
That will involve a stream of messaging that blames Democrats for violent crime, which data from California’s Department of Justice shows increased by 3.3 percent in 2023, as well as the cost-of-living crisis. The party will also seek to campaign on ballot initiatives where voters have at times been willing to side with Republicans, including raising criminal penalties for some drug and theft offenses.
But the most important part of the strategy will be disassociating the deep-blue state’s Republican Party from Trump. A recent poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) between February 4 and 11 among 1,589 respondents in the state showed that only one in three Californians approve of the president’s job performance. Among them, 84 percent of Republicans, 7 percent of Democrats and 28 percent of independent voters approve. But that still makes Trump less popular among Californians than any other president since before 2005.
For GOP consultant Mike Madrid, it is important that California Republicans do not associate with Trump because doing so could be especially damaging amid economic uncertainty in the country, he told CalMatters. It comes after Trump this month proceeded with plans to impose additional tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, which some experts say could increase inflation.
Goldman Sachs previously estimated that the tariffs could push inflation by 1 percent while squeezing U.S. company profits and provoking retaliatory measures from other countries. Canada, for example, has announced billions of dollars in retaliatory tariffs. At the same time, inflation is already affecting the economy, as a Labor Department report for January saw the largest consumer price increase in nearly 18 months.
Recent polls have shown that Trump’s handling of the economy is a key factor in his declining popularity on a national level. And that has also been apparent in California. PPIC’s recent poll showed that when respondents were asked if they thought during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times, only 27 percent said good times, while 72 percent said they think the U.S. will see bad times.
Nonetheless, outgoing California Republican Party Chair Jessica Millan Patterson told CalMatters that it is important the party is able to motivate Trump supporters if they want to break the Democratic supermajority.
“We need to make sure we are motivating those Trump voters and I don’t know that anyone has found that secret sauce yet,” she said. “We welcome all voices. We’re focused on California and Californians….People are desperately looking for options.”
It comes as polls have indicated that Californians may be turning on the Democratic Party. According to polling by Capitol Weekly, published on February 6, when asked “Do you think the Democratic Party has shown an ability to present an effective case against the Trump administration?” only 11 percent said yes, with 79 percent of voters saying that the party has not shown this ability. Among Democrats, the numbers didn’t improve much—with 19 percent expressing confidence in their party, and 68 percent saying “no.” The poll surveyed 1,198 voters in California.
Voters were also asked to give one word to describe the Democratic Party, and the responses were bleak. The most common words voters chose were “lost,” “ineffective” and “weak.” Other words included “toothless,” “ineffectual” and “floundering.” Some voters were more positive, describing the party as “determined,” “optimistic” and “caring.”
Meanwhile, Republican registration in California has ticked back up slightly to 25 percent of registered voters in 2024 but is still far behind the 46 percent who support the Democratic Party. About 22 percent are registered as independents, according to the PPIC.
As California Republicans head into a future under Trump, they are optimistic about their prospects.
“Change is coming to California. It’s time to end the Democrats’ one-party rule and make California great again,” Rankin told delegates after winning the leadership post.
What People Are Saying
California Republican Party Chair Corrin Rankin: “Change is coming to California. It’s time to end the Democrats’ one-party rule and make California great again. We’re going on the offense. We need to expand the battlefield and to take the fight to every corner of our state.”
What Happens Next
The next California State Legislature elections will be held on November 3, 2026, during the midterms. All 80 seats in the California State Assembly (which has two-year terms) will be up for election. And 20 of the 40 seats in the California State Senate (which has four-year terms) will also be contested, as Senate seats are staggered with half up for election every two years.
