When it comes to gerrymandering efforts by Democrats and Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms, redistricting expert Jonathan Cervas believes one party currently has an advantage.
“If nothing changes, as [the districts] are right now, Democrats have clearly won this war,” Cervas said in a Wednesday appearance on Mediaite founder Dan Abrams’ SiriusXM radio show. “Without a doubt.”
Politics: Republicans Are Already Trying To Block California’s Prop 50 Redistricting
An assistant professor specializing in voting rights at Carnegie Mellon University, Cervas said he was taking the passage of California’s Proposition 50, which will allow the state’s Democratic-controlled Legislature to redraw its congressional districts, and a federal district court’s rejection of Texas’ mid-decade redistricting into account.
The 2025 elections were widely characterized as the first electoral test of President Donald Trump’s second term. By all accounts, the outlook for the GOP heading into the 2026 midterms is not good.
The Democrats won governorships in New Jersey and Virginia, and in New York City, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated Trump’s candidate of choice, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, in a decisive race for mayor.
A demonstrator holds a sign during a rally against redistricting in Austin, Texas. via Associated Press
Last month’s passage of Prop 50, however, could be the most far-reaching of the Democrats’ recent victories, as some political experts believe it indicates the party-wide coalition that appeared to fracture after the 2024 presidential election may be re-emerging.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, seen as a leading contender for the Democrats in the 2028 presidential election, touted the legislation as a direct response to Texas’ mid-decade redistricting.
Politics: Pete Hegseth Faces Deepening Scrutiny From Congress Over Boat Strikes
Days after Prop 50 was passed, a panel of federal judges blocked the congressional map adopted by the Texas Legislature in August ― which was drawn at Trump’s urging and shifted five seats currently held by Democrats into the GOP column ― by deeming it an illegal race-based gerrymander. The state was ordered to use its 2021 maps for the midterms, a massive blow in the Trump administration’s push to redistrict across the U.S.
As Cervas pointed out, however, the redistricting war is far from over. Elsewhere in his chat with Abrams, he was quick to point out the potential impact of the Supreme Court’s forthcoming ruling on the Voting Rights Act, which has been an effective tool against racial gerrymandering and voter suppression.
“Half a dozen states or more could redistrict on a whim if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that allows them to,” he said. “And we just don’t know the answer to that question. So ultimately, who’s going to win the war is contingent on questions that we don’t know answers to yet.”
Watch Jonathan Cervas’ appearance on Dan Abrams’ SiriusXM radio show here. His comments on redistricting begin around the 8:36 mark.
Related…
Read the original on HuffPost
