The only thing worse than President Donald Trump’s net approval ratings in 2025 might be the Democrats’ overall approval rating, but a recent report could be reason for hope for those folks.
CNN data guru Harry Enten took a look at special election numbers across the country — particularly the race in Florida’s 6th District — and he said the numbers have Republicans “sweating.”
“This is a ruby red district,” Enten said pulling up a graphic. “Donald Trump won it by, get this, 30-percentage points. This race should not be close. It should not be close, but this is a special election in which I want you to take a look at the turnout so far in the early vote. Republicans have a nine-point advantage. You don’t have to be a mathematical genius to known nine points is way less than 30. Now, of course, this is just party affiliation. We don’t know how those folks are voting, but we do know the early votes traditionally in Florida make up the vast majority of the vote when all the votes are cast and counted. So, the bottom line is, if people vote according to their party affiliation, this race is likely be far, far, far closer than Donald Trump plus-30 that we saw in the presidential race just a little bet over let’s just say, four-five months ago.”
The concern, Enten explained, isn’t just the one special election in Florida. Across the country, he said, Democrats have made up ground in polling.
“Sometimes you see a special election, and you say that’s a one- off,” he said. “But what’s important here is that it’s part of a trend. It’s not just here in Florida 6th in which Republicans are struggling when compared to the presidential baseline of 2024. I want to take you to the nation at large, and take a look at the average 2025 special election and state legislative and federal. And what we see so far is Democrats on average are way above their baseline.”
The average, he said, across the country is a nine-point improvement.
“We are talking about doing nine points better than (Kamala) Harris did in 2024,” he said. “So, when we see the party affiliation statistics coming out of Florida 6th, and you combine it with what we have been seeing as a nation as a whole, I think that is a big reason why Republicans are sweating, quite worried and why Elise Stefanik decided to stay in Congress instead of going off to the White House. Because, keep in mind, that district is actually only about a plus-20 Trump district.”
Considering the recent trend, Enten said, that could have meant a far more competitive race.
“Why does this matter at all?” he said referencing the nine-point swing.
“Why don’t we take a look back through time?” he said. “Jump in the DeLorean and let’s take a look at special elections and mid-term results.
“The key thing here is if a party outperforms in a special election since 2005-2006 cycle, five out of five times, that party that outperforms goes on to win the U.S. House of Representatives and that is, of course, what Democrats hope happen this time around.”
