When Notre Dame’s 2024 schedule was released, most fans likely circled marquee matchups such as the road game at Texas A&M, hosting Louisville and Florida State, and the traditional rivalry against USC. It’s doubtful, storied history or not, that many highlighted Navy as a pivotal game, except perhaps fans of the Midshipmen. Yet, here we are in Week 9 of the college football season, with Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard and the Fighting Irish potentially facing one of their toughest challenges of the season on Saturday in the games 95th meeting.
This weekend’s clash at MetLife Stadium has transformed into a top-25 showdown, as the No. 12 Fighting Irish (6-1) prepare to host the undefeated No. 25 Midshipmen (6-0, 4-0 AAC). What’s at stake is much more than pride and glory; this game holds serious implications for a potential College Football Playoff berth. With the expanded 12-team playoff format, both Notre Dame and Navy find themselves firmly in the playoff hunt.
However, Notre Dame’s independent status means they can’t rely on a conference championship to bolster their résumé. They need every win to count, especially after an early-season setback against Northern Illinois in Week 2. Head coach Marcus Freeman is now tasked with making sure his team avoids any further stumbles, and that starts with needing one of Leonard’s best performances to date.
So, what can we expect from Leonard in this crucial Week 9 matchup? Let’s dive into some bold predictions for the Fighting Irish signal-caller as he faces Navy.
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Riley Leonard throws for most passing yards this season against Navy
Riley Leonard’s transition from Duke to Notre Dame hasn’t been the smoothest. In fact, his first five games were underwhelming, as he failed to surpass 200 yards passing in any of those matchups, though he still managed to gain significant yards on the ground.
However, Leonard’s passing game has shown signs of life recently, with two consecutive 200-plus-yard games. Navy’s defense has yet to face a quarterback with Leonard’s dual-threat capabilities this season, which could pose significant challenges for their game plan. His ability to scramble and extend plays can confuse defenders, ultimately creating opportunities in the passing game. Expect Leonard to surpass his season-high total of 229 passing yards and throw for at least 250 against the Midshipmen.
Riley Leonard completes second-longest pass of the season against Navy
Leonard has struggled with his deep ball accuracy this season, completing just five of 17 passes on throws of 20-plus yards, per Pro Football Focus. While two of those completions have resulted in touchdowns, two others have led to interceptions. His longest pass of the season was a 53-yard connection with Beaux Collins in Notre Dame’s dominant 49-7 win over Stanford.
However, as Leonard grows more comfortable in Notre Dame’s offense, he may take a few more deep shots against Navy this weekend. Expect him to connect on his second-longest pass of the season, with a completion of at least 40 yards. His second-best deep completion so far was a 38-yard throw against Miami (Ohio), a mark he’s likely to surpass in Week 9.
Riley Leonard scores a combined four touchdowns against Navy
Leonard’s dual-threat abilities make him one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in college football. He’s capable of piling up significant yardage both through the air and on the ground, as he’s demonstrated multiple times with 100-plus yard performances in both categories. Leonard is also a proven scoring threat in both aspects of the game.
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Interestingly, Leonard has scored more rushing touchdowns (10) this season than passing (6). He didn’t throw his first touchdown until his fourth game with Notre Dame, in a matchup against Miami (Ohio). However, since then, he’s recorded at least one rushing and passing touchdown in every game. Leonard is likely to keep that trend going against Navy in Week 9, as his dual-threat abilities will once again be on full display, scoring four combined touchdowns.
Notre Dame hands Navy their first loss of season, thanks to a fourth quarter Riley Leonard rushing touchdown
With Notre Dame, it’s always a bit of a mystery how good they truly are. Under Marcus Freeman, the team has been wildly inconsistent. They’ve shown they can beat top-tier teams, such as when they went into Texas A&M and came away with a win, only to follow it up with a surprising loss to Northern Illinois. It leaves many wondering if they play up to their competition while sometimes taking others too lightly.
Taking the Midshipmen lightly is something Notre Dame can’t afford to do this weekend. Navy boasts an offense that ranks 3rd in the nation, averaging 44 points per game, and has been lethal in the red zone, scoring 100% of the time they get inside the 20-yard line.
This means Riley Leonard might be called upon to deliver in what could turn into a bit of a shootout—assuming he gets the chance, as Navy’s rushing attack, averaging 277.2 yards per game (third-best in the country), could limit Notre Dame’s offensive opportunities. Leonard may need to rely on his full arsenal, including his ability to make plays with his legs. Expect Leonard to rush for a crucial fourth-quarter touchdown to seal the game for the Irish.
