All non-playoff bowl games present a wide range of unknowns, and the Rate Bowl truly reflects the mystery.
Both Rutgers and Kansas State will face off without key players and there is no discerning evidence that one team is more focused or prepared. So how does one handicap such a puzzle?
I used to subscribe to the blind rule of taking underdogs, when in doubt. After all, it’s not as if oddsmakers or the betting market have an accurate gauge of the power rankings for these types of bowl games.
For example, in Tuesday’s Hawaii Bowl, San Jose State initially opened as a 2.5-point favorite and the spread reached as high as 4.5 points. However, in the hours leading up to kickoff, the favorite changed and South Florida closed as a 1.5-point favorite. Sure enough, the Bulls won a quintuple-overtime marathon, 51-49, so grabbing the underdog throughout most of the process paid off.
The Scarlet Knights will play without stud senior running back Kyle Monangai, who ranked in the top three in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in the Big Ten. He was the bell cow for a relatively limited Rutgers offense with 23.3 attempts per game.
The Wildcats will also have to replace production but just not to the same level as Rutgers. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson will play, and I believe that’s the difference. There were just too many instances where Rutgers got torched by strong quarterbacks and solid offenses. I do not think they can maintain the scoring pace without Monangai.
Rutgers QB Athan Kaliakmanis could surprise us and deliver more production when asked to do so. Plus, Greg Schiano is a solid coach with a strong track record in bowl games.
Betting on College Football?
But the Wildcats at their peak were among the more highly regarded teams. They started the year with a 7-1 record and were ranked 16th. And I am a big fan of coach Chris Klieman and feel he will get his team in the right mindset to win this game of unknowns.
THE PICK: Kansas State -7 (-110, ESPN BET)
