The Saints visit the Chiefs on Monday night, giving us another opportunity to build on our same-game parlay +425 cash from last Thursday.
Kansas City opened as an eight-point favorite, but that number is surprisingly down to -5.5 across the market.
While both teams will be without key players, New Orleans has cluster injuries on both sides of the ball, which could dramatically impact this game.
In this preview, we’ll share why the injury report holds all the clues to putting together another successful same-game parlay.
Saints vs. Chiefs odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | +5.5 (-112) | +190 | o43 (-110) |
| Chiefs | -5.5 (-108) | -230 | u43 (-110) |
Saints vs. Chiefs same-game parlay (+549, FanDuel)
- Leg 1: Chiefs ML (-240)
- Leg 2: Travis Kelce 40+ receiving yards (-300)
- Leg 3: Samaje Perine under 2.5 receptions (-170)
- Leg 4: Kareem Hunt 25+ rushing yards (-400)
- Leg 5: Alvin Kamara 25+ receiving yards (-205)
- Leg 6: Under 50.5 points (-310)
Chiefs ML (-240)
The Chiefs continue to roll year after year, even as their roster changes. They weren’t supposed to survive without Tyreek Hill, yet they’ve won back-to-back Super Bowls since trading him to the Dolphins. Even the departure of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy did little to slow Kansas City down.
The core remains intact, with the head coach Andy Reid (12 seasons), Patrick Mahomes (eight seasons) as quarterback and Steve Spagnuolo (six seasons) as defensive coordinator.
Kansas City has won 10 straight games while covering the spread in nine of them.
With the line moving toward New Orleans a bit perplexing, I’m okay with a juiced moneyline play on the Chiefs to get our SGP rolling.
Travis Kelce 40+ receiving yards (-300)
After a quiet start to the season, Kelce had his best performance in Week 4 with seven catches for 89 yards on a season-high nine targets.
While Kansas City took strides to improve its wide receiving corps in the offseason, injuries should point to Kelce playing a more prominent role.
Making matters more favorable for Kelce will be the absence of starting linebackers Pete Werner and Willie Gay. Look for Mahomes to target those soft spots in the middle of the zone and get Kelce involved early and often.
Samaje Perine under 2.5 receptions (-170)
Following an injury to Isiah Pacheco in Week 2, the Chiefs signed Kareem Hunt to their practice squad.
Now first on the depth chart entering Monday night’s game, Hunt was productive in his Week 4 debut, averaging 4.9 yards on 14 carries. He also had two receptions for 16 yards.
He’s a candidate to stay on the field, even on third down, and as Hunt gets more comfortable in the offense, Perine could play fewer snaps, similar to what happened before Pacheco suffered his injury.
Kareem Hunt 25+ rushing yards (-400)
One thing we can expect from the Chiefs is a balanced offense. We’ve seen them operate this way with Pacheco, and that should continue with Hunt as the featured back.
Kansas City ranks in the top half (12th) of the league with a run play rate of 46.4%.
While the Saints’ defense ranks eighth in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metric, Hunt’s alternate rushing prop of 25 yards is very modest and attainable.
Alvin Kamara 25+ receiving yards (-205)
One could easily argue that the Saints’ offense is built around their dynamic running back, who has six touchdowns this season and has played at least 80% of the offensive snaps over the last two weeks.
With New Orleans down two starting offensive linemen (center Shane Lemieux and right guard Cesar Ruiz), Derek Carr could be under plenty of pressure from the Chiefs pass rush. Carr likely won’t have much time in the pocket, as he’ll need to go through his progressions quickly.
Thus, Kamara will be an excellent check-down option out of the backfield, and he’s gone over 25 receiving yards in all four games this season.
Betting on the NFL?
ALT under 50.5 points (-310)
Over the last few weeks, the Chiefs have played much more of a controlled game as they try to manage their injuries at wide receiver.
Mahomes hasn’t been at his best, throwing five interceptions, and his 50.8 Total QBR is a career-low.
The Saints would need to do their part to push this game over 50 points, and I just don’t see that happening against this Chiefs defense.
Add FanDuel’s heavily juiced alternate total of 50.5 points to finish off the SGP.
Best bet: Same-game parlay (+549, FanDuel)
- Leg 1: Chiefs ML (-240)
- Leg 2: Travis Kelce 40+ receiving yards (-300)
- Leg 3: Samaje Perine under 2.5 receptions (-170)
- Leg 4: Kareem Hunt 25+ rushing yards (-400)
- Leg 5: Alvin Kamara 25+ receiving yards (-205)
- Leg 6: ALT under 50.5 points (-310)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.
