(Bloomberg) — “Don’t Sleep On Iowa,” is more than just a motto on her blue t-shirt, Iowa House Democratic leader Jennifer Konfrst shouted to Kamala Harris supporters gathered in the basement of a local party headquarters in Waukee.
Most Read from Bloomberg
It’s political intuition that is proving to be prescient, she said Sunday, pointing to a respected Iowa pollster’s bombshell findings this weekend that Donald Trump is losing to Harris in a state he previously won twice by comfortable margins.
“Who is fired up from the Iowa poll!” Konfrst, 50, exhorted to dozens of cheering Democrats.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted by J. Ann Selzer, which has a nationally respected track record, shows Harris up 3 percentage points, 47% to 44%. This comes as other recent Iowa polls have shown Trump with sizable leads — and Trump and other Republicans are bashing Selzer’s poll as an outlier.
“It was a shock, believe you me, when I went into the office after the first night of interviewing.” Selzer told Bloomberg television Monday. “No one would expect Kamala Harris would have leap-frogged over Donald Trump into the lead.”
For Konfrst and other Iowa state Democrats at multiple campaign events Sunday, the poll confirms what they’ve long believed: Republicans up and down the ballot are hurt by the state’s new and divisive six-week abortion ban, its controversial school voucher program, and changes to the system of agencies that provide special education support and other services to Iowa’s K-12 schools.
“Do not underestimate pissed off women!” Konfrst said at the Waukee event, which was centered on reproductive rights.
Iowa’s Pollster
Indeed, Selzer’s poll shows women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris and other Democratic candidates.
Selzer is one of the nation’s most acclaimed pollsters, largely for her work sampling the difficult-to-poll Iowa caucuses that kick off the presidential nominating calendar. The polling aggregation site 538, owned by The Walt Disney Co., ranks her as the 12th most accurate pollster in the country. Statistician Nate Silver says he considers her one of the two best.
Since first polling Iowa presidential elections in 1996, her general election polls have had an average error of about 2.5 percentage points — within the margin of error. Her biggest miss came in 2008, when she predicted a 17-point win for President Barack Obama. He won the state by less than 10 points.
Selzer’s poll also confirms that Republican incumbents in US House seats, Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn, are in danger, a blaring warning sign for the GOP, whose majority hinges on limiting Democratic gains nationwide to fewer than four seats.
“We’ve got two opportunities in Iowa,” Suzan DelBene, the chair of the House Democratic political arm, said Sunday while stumping through the state.
Miller-Meeks’ spokesman Tyler Menzler on Sunday responded that the congresswoman always thought her campaign was going to be competitive. He said that she has had close races before, but that the new poll defies the reality on the ground.
Despite the enthusiasm over the new poll, some Democrats were wistful at the notion that the Harris camp has, in fact, been sleeping on Iowa.
Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand, 42, the only Democrat in statewide office, described the state at an event in Johnston as “fundamentally more of a purple state than people perceive.”
Democrats’ losses, he said, have typically come with close margins.
Lack of Investment
Standing nearby, Tiara Mays-Sims, 35, a candidate for an Iowa House seat, interjects, “There’s been zero investment” by the Harris campaign in Iowa.
In fact, there has been only minimal spending in Iowa markets for the presidential race since Labor Day, according to AdImpact, which tracks ad purchases.
In Des Moines, which also reaches nearby Ames, Harris has spent $62,000 compared to $31,000 for Trump. In Davenport, just $66,000 has been spent by both parties, with about three-quarters of the sum backing the vice president. In the Cedar Rapids market, Harris and her allies have spent $113,000 compared to $40,000 for Trump.
Those totals are far short of what Harris is spending in neighboring Nebraska, which awards two of its four electoral votes by the winner of each of the state’s congressional districts. In the second, Harris and her allies have spent $4.4 million just in the Omaha market on the Iowa border. Trump has spent just $129,000 over the same period.
Counties in the west of Iowa fall in the Omaha market and would have seen many of those pro-Harris ads.
If the presidential race in Iowa is really this close, Iowa’s state Democratic Chair Rita Hart acknowledged it would be great for Harris or her vice presidential running mate, Tim Walz, to pay Iowa a visit before Tuesday. But she was aware of no such plans, and declined to criticize their closing national strategy, as it is.
Sand, the state auditor, said he wondered if, in the end, there might be some regret by either presidential campaign, including Harris’ team, for largely snubbing Iowa — given the new poll numbers on her standing.
“Could’ve, would’ve, should’ve,” could be the reaction, he said, if Democrats lose Iowa by a small margin.
–With assistance from Bill Allison and Gregory Korte.
(Updates with details on Iowa pollster from 8th paragraph)
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
