Democrats improved their 2024 performance in all five of Florida’s Republican-leaning special elections this year for Congress and state Legislature.
State party officials have crowed about the results, saying it’s a signal for how the upcoming midterms could look. “Florida Democrats just put the Republican Party on notice,” the party declared after the first two special elections in April.
But experts say they believe the results in races for vacated seats in two congressional and three state Legislature districts say more about the shifting demographics of who votes in smaller, off-year contests than it does about how 2026 midterms may go.
“Historically, Republicans seem to have an advantage in specials and midterms, because they attracted wealthier, better-educated voters, but now that has switched,” said Aubrey Jewett, associate director of the School of Politics, Security and International Affairs at the University of Central Florida.
To be clear: Democrats lost each special election this year after running in Republican-dominated districts. But the candidates outperformed their party’s 2024 performance in the same districts by an average of 17 percentage points.
For example, in Florida House District 32, Juan Hinojosa first ran for the seat in 2024, receiving 36% of the vote. The Democrat ran again this month and improved significantly, earning 45%. Between the two elections, Hinojosa narrowed his margin of defeat from 29 points to 11, a gain of 18.
The candidates exceeded presidential nominee Kamala Harris’ results in the same districts by 16 points, and Joe Biden’s 2020 margins by 11, according to data collected by The Downballot.
Florida’s not alone. Democrats in 26 of the 29 legislative special elections across the country this year fared better than Harris did in their districts in November.
Jewett said the trend shows how hyperaware voters have become more Democratic.
Democrats are also proving to be more enthusiastic voters than Republicans at the moment. President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have declined, particularly on his handling of the economy, where he failed to deliver on his promises. Voters expected stability and growth, but his use of tariffs and frequent firings raised concerns. That’s had a negative impact on Republican turnout while simultaneously motivating Democrats.
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Trump’s approval rating has been underwater since mid-March, according to a New York Times polling average. About 53% of voters disapprove of his job performance, up from 43% in January.
But that is not enough to say that Democrats will flip any seats in 2026.
The data on special elections can be wonky. Fewer people turn out to the polls in non-presidential election years. In Brevard County, home to two of the three June races, 17% of eligible voters cast ballots this month, down from over 80% in November. Despite the low participation, Democrats turned out at higher rates than their share of registered voters in both races.
Improvement in a special election doesn’t always mean the same for the next general election.
Republicans also hold a growing voter advantage over Democrats in Florida, with the GOP claiming more than 1 million more active registered voters.
“Florida is just not really competitive right now,” Jewett said. “Small changes in voter excitement and mobilization in a special election is unlikely to translate into big changes in the general election, just because right now Republicans have a big lead in Florida.”
Even if the Democrats improve in 2026, there are few Florida seats that would be easy to flip. The closest congressional race in 2024 was in Pinellas County, where Republican Anna Paulina Luna won reelection by a margin of 9.6%.
There are no more GOP-held districts on the special election calendar this year; the two remaining upcoming elections are for historically blue seats in Orange County set for later this year.
Edwin Benton, a professor of political science and public administration at the University of South Florida, said he thinks Democrats must make big changes to their messaging if they want to do better in 2026.
“Republicans are floundering, but you’ve got to step up to the plate and you’ve got to talk the language of the concerns of the average Floridian, which the Democratic Party has not done lately,” he said.
