The NBA Cup quarterfinals head out west on Wednesday night, providing us with a David vs. Goliath type of matchup.
Reigning NBA champions, Oklahoma City Thunder (23-1), vie to clinch a spot in Las Vegas for the Cup semifinals against the underrated Phoenix Suns (14-10).
Phoenix silently boasts an NBA-best 16-8 record against the spread (ATS). In contrast, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder have won 15 straight games.
To no one’s surprise, the Thunder are favored by 14.5 points at home in this contest and are -125 to win the Cup outright, per bet365 Sportsbook.
Suns vs. Thunder best bet, prediction
It’s easy to run out of words to describe precisely how well the Thunder have played so far, as their lone loss of the season came back on Nov. 5.
Mark Daigneault has a potential dynasty on his hands, as oddsmakers currently have OKC at +130 to repeat as champions (FanDuel).
Like most championship teams, this OKC group covers ground quickly and plays with high intensity on defense. Their 104.1 defensive rating is No. 1 in the NBA, as no other team forces more turnovers per play than the Thunder.
Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace are relentless toward opposing guards while the twin towers of Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren protect the rim.
On offense, Gilgeous-Alexander remains the primary ball-handler, and he’s managed to improve his two glaring weaknesses (three-point shooting, turnovers).
SGA has scored 30 or more points nineteen times already this season, all while averaging only 1.7 turnovers per game and shooting a career-best 55.6% from beyond the arc.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s steady scoring, combined with the emergence of Holmgren and Ajay Mitchell while Jaylen Williams missed the first 19 games, has enabled the Thunder to boast a league-best +16.2 margin of victory.
The Suns will attempt to do what most teams can’t: keep things close with the Thunder.
On a positive note, in their first meeting, they played OKC tough and only lost by four points. In fact, the 123-119 final score on Nov. 28 was the second-smallest margin of victory for the Thunder so far, aside from their one-point win over Houston on opening night.
Devin Booker is also trending towards making a return after sitting out two games with a groin injury.
Collin Gillespie has transformed into a capable shooter and high-IQ point guard for Phoenix. Although the sample size is small, Gillespie is averaging 21.0 points, 4.4 threes made, 5.0 assists, and 3.0 rebounds in five games as a starter.
The often-criticized Dillon Brooks is also having a career year across the board. The former Rocket has solidified his midrange touch, averaging career highs in points (22.2) and field-goal percentage (45.3).
Phoenix brings a defensive pedigree to the table as well, leading the NBA in total steals (259), averaging 8.5 per game.
Betting on the NBA?
Despite their impressive ATS record, the Suns have 40/1 odds to win the cup outright, according to BetMGM, the worst in the field.
The return of Booker helps, but this Thunder team has too much depth and can counter any punch Phoenix might throw.
Expect OKC to apply pressure early and often, running away with this contest in front of their home crowd.
The Plays: Thunder First Half Spread -8.5 (-110, bet365) + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score 30+ points (-155, BetMGM)
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Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.
