New Wall Street Journal polling of seven battleground states shows a race too close to call virtually everywhere — but with advantages for Republican Donald Trump on the election’s key issues.
Overall, the former president tops Kamala Harris 46% to 45%. And in all the states but one, the race is a genuine jump ball in the estimation of pollsters GBAO and Fabrizio Lee, Democratic and Republican firms respectively.
While the vice president leads on multi-candidate ballots in Arizona and Michigan (47% to 45% in both), as well as Georgia and Wisconsin (46% to 45% in both), Trump has a narrow edge in Nevada (47% to 42%), North Carolina and Pennsylvania (46% to 45% in both) among 600 registered voters in each state polled between Sept. 28 and Oct. 8.
Harris has seen gains on President Biden’s numbers in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
But voters solidly prefer Trump on several questions about what the candidates bring to the table, including experience, where even states not leaning to him overall see him as the more seasoned choice.
On “who is best able to handle” illegal immigration — which voters say is their second-top concern — respondents give the ex-prez a 16-point lead (52% to 36%).
In Nevada, Trump’s up a staggering 25 points on this question, but he’s ahead in every state here.
Trump is +10 on the economy, with 50% of swing-state voters seeing him as the better bet than Harris on their No. 1 election issue.
That trend carries everywhere, with his biggest leads being +12 in Georgia and +11 in Pennsylvania.
He’s also up 11 points (50% to 39%) over Harris when it comes to who’s trusted to tamp down inflation, and nowhere on the map is this more striking than Nevada, where 53% of voters say he’s the better bet to lower the high cost of living; Harris is at an anemic 35%.
Trump is also ahead by double digits (50% to 39%) on who’s most trusted to find a resolution to Russia’s war on Ukraine, and that consensus holds across all seven states, complete with Trump being +15 in Arizona. The former president has vowed he could resolve the war before he’s even sworn back into office.
He has an even bigger lead on resolving the Israeli war with Hamas, 48% to 33%. That advantage holds everywhere, but in no state is Harris less trusted on this issue than North Carolina, where 29% of voters think she can settle the issue the Biden administration has let blow up into a regional war.
By 48% to 42%, swing-state voters trust what Trump brings to the job more than what Harris would. Ironically given the slight lean in these two states to the veep, Trump is up by 11 points on this metric in Georgia and 8 in Arizona, his biggest leads on the question of who has the past performance to be trusted with the presidency.
Trump is seen as the change agent in the election overall, 45% to 42%, carrying five of the seven states on this question. His best performance: He’s +8 over Harris in Nevada.
Trump also gets higher marks than Harris when it comes to his vision for the future, 44% to 43%. On this, he’s +10 in Nevada, which is the biggest lead in any state in the sample on this question.
On who “cares about people like you,” Harris is up 6 points on Trump — but they’re basically tied on who “stands up for the American work.”
By 6 points, more voters say Harris “cares about people like you” than say so of Trump. The two are essentially tied when voters are asked which one will stand up for American workers.
The margin of error is +/-1.5 points for the full poll and 4 for each state.
