Three big primary elections are coming up this month that will provide another peak into how Americans are feeling about the direction President Donald Trump is taking the country.
The contests in New Jersey on June 10, Virginia on June 17 and New York City on June 24 will also provide clues into how well Democrats have picked up their party’s pieces after losing to the returning president’s Make America Great Again coalition, which gained him some ground in blue states and local communities.
Democrats were brimming with confidence earlier in the year after beating back billionaire Elon Musk in Wisconsin’s high-stakes state Supreme Court race, where the liberal-leaning candidate prevailed. Political forecasters are giving Democrats the edge in Virginia’s odd-year gubernatorial race coming up this November, with both Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, at the University of Virginia, and the Cook Political Report, saying it leans in their favor.
More: Democrats prevail in Wisconsin while GOP holds the line in Florida: 3 takeaways
Given it is a state next door to Washington, D.C., Trump’s decisions, especially layoffs of federal workers, are expected to cast a large shadow on that contest.
Over in the Garden State and the Big Apple there is a different question. Competitive Democratic primaries carry national implications about what direction is best to crawl the party’s brand out of the gutter going forward.
N.J. governor’s race will signal where Democrats want to go next
Woodland Park, NJ — April 24, 2025 — Editorial board meeting with Rep. Mikie Sherrill who is running for governor in the Democratic primary.
There are six Democrats seeking to succeed Gov. Phil Murphy, a fellow Democrat who is term limited. This race is considered one of the best litmus tests for the type of candidate the party has an appetite for going forward.
Among the contenders are Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer, U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney.
A New Jersey voter casts their ballot at a senior activity center in Palisades Park, Nov. 5, 2024.
Polling shows Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, in the lead and her bona fides include flipping a Republican held seat in the 2018 midterms and heavy support from party groups who have get out the vote experience and resources. But experts repeatedly have warned how close −and unpredictable – this race will be.
A poll conducted by Emerson College in May found Sherrill leading among registered Democratic voters with 28%, followed by a three-way tied between Fulop, Gottheimer and Baraka at 11% with Spiller holding 10% and Sweeney at 5%.
But 24% of Democrats remain undecided, the survey found.
Whoever prevails will tell a lot about the vibe for Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Baraka, for instance, is a charismatic speaker with a long history of civic service and grassroots organizing as the son of poet and political activists Amiri Baraka. He was thrust into the national spotlight last month after he was taken into custody by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in a scuffle at the gate to a federal facility in Newark.
But electability remains an issue in the primary that could hobble progressives with a more aggressive approach, and give more centrist-minded contenders an opening.
Gottheimer, a former Microsoft employee, is one of Washington’s most prolific fundraisers who co-founded a bipartisan group dubbed the “Problem Solvers Caucus” that tries to sniff out consensus in Congress.
Many New Jersey Democrats have openly expressed concern in recent reports that their state, which tends to lean blue in presidential elections, might be turning red after Trump lost by roughly 5% in 2024 when he previously lost by about 16% in 2020.
Former New Jersey state GOP assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli launches his 2025 campaign for governor.
Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former assemblyman, is the top dog in the GOP primary. He came within three points of winning the governor’s seat in 2021 and has courted the MAGA base heavily after initially being a Trump critic.
“Jack has what it takes to win. He has my complete and total endorsement,” Trump said in a June 2 telephone rally. “It’s being watched all over the world because New Jersey is ready to pop out of that blue horror show.”
NYC mayor’s race tests AOC’s influence amid Cuomo comeback
Gov. Andrew Cuomo gives daily briefing on COVID-19 response at the Wegmans Conference Center in Chili, May 4, 2020.
There are plenty of compelling storylines coming out of the Big Apple race.
It started with the future of Mayor Eric Adams, who faces serious questions about why the U.S. Department of Justice dropped corruption charges against him that were filed during the Biden administration. Critics maintain the former NYPD detective began cooperating with the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration in exchange for federal prosectors to look the other way, which Adams vehemently denies.
But the embattled incumbent’s 11th-hour decision to ditch the Democrats and run as an independent opened up the door for another narrative that has overtaken the race, and that is the return of former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo to politics.
The 67-year-old heir of the Cuomo political dynasty announced in March he was running for the Democratic nomination and he quickly reemerged on the political scene as the front-runner after resigning amid his own scandals in 2021, including allegations of sexual harassment that he denies.
Many thought Cuomo’s career was finished but polling shows him with a healthy lead in the city’s mayoral contest, which uses ranked-choice voting. He is also raking in significant endorsements from former opponents, New York members of Congress and unions that once urged him to resign, too.
Progressives are now scrambling ahead of the June 24 election looking to build a working-class coalition among the remaining contenders that can keep Cuomo from the Democratic nomination.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., is looked at as a face of that resistance to Cuomo. She is backing Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old assemblyman who wants a $10 billion tax hike on wealthy individuals and businesses to help pay for free childcare up to age five, no fares on city buses and no increases for rent-stabilized apartments.
“I think New Yorkers are hungry for a different kind of politics,” Mamdani told USA TODAY. “They’re hungry for a politics that puts working people first.”
AOC’s endorsement adds a new wrinkle to the race, and will test the congresswoman’s influence as she has been criss-crossing the country building up her national party brand.
Virginia governor’s race set to be bellwether for Trump agenda
Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump sits in the family box with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin during the third day of the Republican National Convention at Fiserv Forum, Jul7 17, 2024. Credit: Jasper Colt-USA TODAY
Virginia may not be the national bellwether it used to be in some political experts’ minds. But the national implications cannot be overlooked as one of the first elections on the heels of a presidential race.
Unlike New Jersey, however, the Old Dominion State’s primaries won’t be competitive. They will be setting up a historic and contrasting contest for this fall.
Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA agent, is running unopposed. Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the state’s lieutenant governor, had a handful of challengers who failed to qualify for the ballot. Whoever wins, Virginia will have its first women governor.
On the issues, the two are total opposites, especially on Trump’s agenda. Virginia is home to about 152,300 federal workers, and the president’s cuts to the government workforce will be a major issue. Democrats say they are also eager to make the campaign about economy-threatening tariffs, and they hope to use Earle-Sears’ controversial comments on social issues against her.
Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears speaks during a press conference as the Faith & Politics Institute holds its Congressional Civil Rights Pilgrimage in Selma, Ala., on the 60th Anniversary of Bloody Sunday, March 7, 2024.
Republicans have pulled off an upset in Virginia before. Glenn Youngkin won the governor’s mansion in 2021, which many point to as the beginning of the end for the Biden presidency.
Earle-Sears, who would be the first Black women governor in U.S. history if elected, has leaned into economic populism. She’s unveiled an “Axe the Tax” plan that would take end taxes on tips for food service and hospitality workers, in addition to eliminating Virginia’s automobile tax and other vehicle-based property taxes.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 3 things to know about the N.J., Virginia and N.Y. primaries
