The Catalist report is in, the big “what happened” packet interpreting the 2024 election through voting results and voter files, census data and modeling from the Democratic firm that election-studiers anticipate every cycle as soon as the last vote is cast.
This year’s headline: Men, especially young men, swung hard to the right.
“The gender gap in partisan preferences increased in 2024: women continued to support Harris (55% support) at roughly the same levels that they supported Biden in 2020 (56%),” the report said. “But men moved towards Trump in 2024, from 48% support for Biden in 2020 to 42% support for Harris in 2024. These changes were seen across racial and other demographic groups.”
Look at the gap in Black voters, a key Democratic constituency: “In the Trump era, the gender gap substantially grew, driven by much larger support drops among Black men. In 2016, the gap expanded to 6 points, driven by a 5-point drop among men. Similarly, in 2024, the gap was an unprecedented 11 points — while Black women’s support was still 90%, Black men fell to 79%.”
The largest driver of that gap, the report said, seems to be men aged 18-29.
Kamala Harris did 13 points better with Latinas (though there was some notable slippage there from 2020) than Latinos; for the first time since Catalist has been tracking, Latino support for the Democratic candidate fell below 50 percent (to 47).
The gender gap among white voters, the report said, was the highest ever at 12 points.
“While the gender gap increased across all age cohorts in 2024, it was by far the largest among young voters (Gen Z and Millennials) and also the largest for the group in recent elections since Catalist has tracked detailed data,” the report said.
Democrats typically win elections by scooping up a big percentage of the new voters who enter an election cycle; this offsets what has usually been the Democratic-majority cohort that voted in the last election but then drops out of the electorate. As the Cook Report, which got the Catalist report first, points out, this is how Democrats consistently won the popular vote.
This time, that dynamic flipped on its head. Harris increased Democratic ground with “super voters,” a previously Republican-leaning group that voted in each of the last four major elections.
“In 2016, super voters leaned Republican, with only 47% supporting Clinton. In 2020 and 2024, they shifted towards Democrats, with 49% supporting Biden in 2020 and just under 50% supporting Harris in 2024,” the report said. “Neither of these are majority support, but they trended toward Democrats. These voters — older, more likely to be homeowners — have historically been Republican, so it is notable that Democrats have gained among this group.”
Those voters made up more of the electorate in 2024 than 2020, which was a boon to Harris. But, critically, she underperformed Joe Biden both with new voters and those who voted in fewer than all four of the last elections. The new voters were about 4 million fewer than the group that dropped out, and they voted for Harris at historically low levels. The young male drift was a key part of this underperformance.
The conclusion is fairly bleak for Democrats still hoping that the Obama coalition, aided by growing diversity in the electorate, would simply grow too large to be defeated as Republicans’ aging white base died off: the “demographics is destiny” thesis. Voters, particularly young men of color, who long seemed un-poachable for Republicans are proving increasingly willing to cross over. With the exception of white men — who came back to the party when a non-woman, or Biden, was on the ballot in 2020 — Black, Latino and AAPI men’s support of the Democratic party has lessened in each of the last three presidential elections, seemingly driven by the rightward drift of the youngest cohort.
In a report light on good news for Democrats, Harris did hold on to one segment of the base that has become solidly reliable for the party.
“Harris maintained support among a different set of voters: women — white, Black, and older women in particular — and consistent voters who are the most engaged in the political process,” the report said. “This group of highly engaged voters have been trending towards Democrats over the Trump era and showed little change in support over the last four years.”
— Kate Riga
DOGE Damage
The world’s richest man is going to scale back how much money he spends in elections moving forward, after spending almost a quarter of a billion dollars on getting Trump elected, leading the Trump administration’s looting of the federal government and watching his public profile — and Tesla’s stock value — crash and burn in the process.
“I think in terms of political spending, I’m going to do a lot less in the future,” Musk told Bloomberg while attending the Qatar Economic Forum. “I think I’ve done enough.”
“Well, if I see a reason to do political spending in the future, I will do it,” Musk added, dodging when asked if he would take a step away from the Trump administration due to the public blowback his companies have received.
“I don’t currently see a reason,” he said.
Kristi Noem Doesn’t Know What Habeas Corpus Is
This exchange, between DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) during a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on DHS’ budget for fiscal year 2026 has been making the rounds today.
On the one hand, you can’t expect a Trump administration official not to take an opportunity to troll a Democratic senator. On the other hand, it really seems like she doesn’t know what the term means.
Hassan: “What is habeas corpus?”
Noem: “Habeas corpus is a constitutional right that the president has to be able to remove people from this country, and suspend their right to—”
Hassan: “Habeas corpus is the foundational right that separates free societies like America from police states like North Korea,” she said, before asking Noem whether she believes in the “core protection” of habeas corpus.
Noem: “Yes, I support habeas corpus. I also recognize that the President of the United States has the authority under the Constitution to decide if it should be suspended or not.”
Johnson Warns Senate Against Chopping Up Bill
Senate Republicans are considering taking the House reconciliation bill (if/when it actually passes the House) and chopping it up into three or four different pieces of legislation — ostensibly so that they can make tweaks to the parts of the bill that they don’t like (Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has said he’s a “no” on the legislation in its current form because it doesn’t do enough to address the deficit. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) has warned that he isn’t going to support cuts to Medicaid).
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) met with Senate Republicans this afternoon and reportedly warned them against making major changes to the bill once its in their chamber, according to Axios. That’s likely because the bill, in its current form, is not necessarily on a glide path for passage in Johnson’s own chamber, and anything that does pass may not be able to withstand further tinkering.
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