Romania’s shocking election cancellation is an opportunity to push for greater European strategic autonomy.
Recent events in Romania have captured global attention and thrown the country into a state of political turmoil. On Sunday, the government barred a popular candidate, Calin Georgescu, from running in the country’s upcoming May presidential election. This action was preceded by Georgescu, an independent right-wing candidate who is skeptical of NATO, the EU, and support for Ukraine, winning the first round of the presidential election. The Romanian Constitutional Court abruptly annulled the results, cancelling the scheduled second round. The authorities then briefly arrested Georgescu when he sought to file his candidacy for president once again.
These actions against Georgescu were undertaken following U.S.-backed allegations of Russian interference in the election despite the fact that the then-president of Romania, who has since resigned in the fallout from this scandal, admitted that these allegations were “nearly impossible” to prove.
The Trump administration has taken notice. In a blunt speech at the Munich Security Conference, Vice President JD Vance chided Eurocrats for their glee over Romania’s canceled election. Likewise, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard cited Romania’s canceled election as just one example of our European allies acting in an undemocratic manner.
While highlighting hypocrisy is a useful political tool, American leaders should be more ambitious and view the situation in Romania as an opportunity to reset the U.S. relationship with Europe. Romania could prove the perfect proving ground for the new normal.
After he won the first round of Romania’s presidential election, news reports described Georgescu as an “unknown” who achieved a shock victory thanks to a successful TikTok campaign. A closer look shows that while he is an outsider to the NATO and EU establishments, the reality of Georgescu is starkly different from the portrayal of him as Putin’s puppet.
He is a soil scientist who has worked for the UN as a Special Rapporteur and his 2012 report on the long-term deleterious effect of American nuclear bomb testing in the Marshall Islands remains on the UN website today. Following his work with the UN, Georgescu worked on sustainability issues with the Club of Rome. Georgescu was discussed as a potential candidate for prime minister as far back as 2010; he was formally proposed as prime minister in 2020 and 2021.
Georgescu’s background reveals a man well-versed in human rights and sustainability and whose name has been floated for political leadership long before 2024. It is not his background but his ideas that have struck fear into the NATO and EU establishments.
Romania is home to Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, the easternmost NATO base in Europe. The Biden administration invested heavily in this base near Ukraine and facing Crimea, planning to turn it into one of the largest in Europe, surpassing the Ramstein base in Germany. Georgescu’s campaign included a skeptical attitude toward the continued presence of U.S. troops in Romania. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump challenges the conventional view of NATO, is seeking to tamp down tensions with Russia, end the war in Ukraine, and has attempted to withdraw troops from Europe in the past. It’s not hard to see how these facts could combine into a recipe for a U.S. drawdown and shifting the burden of Romania’s defense onto Romania.
This pragmatic vision diverges from the status quo and the emerging transactional model. Joe Biden’s description of the alliance as a “sacred obligation” encompasses the status quo. Hungary exemplifies the more transactional model wherein the United States signals a greater defense commitment, including an enlarged troop presence, for countries that spend more on their defense.
Georgescu’s model represents a third way which would permit and encourage our NATO allies to make their own sovereign defense decisions, emphasizing self-reliance instead of taking the U.S. security guarantee as a given or acting to curry favor with Washington through increased defense spending. This model makes sense for many reasons. As much as we are accustomed to talking about NATO and Europe, these coalitions refer to groups of countries that have very different interests and security needs, making any blanket approach to policymaking unwieldy. An alliance should not and need not attempt to level these differences.
Of course, Georgescu being barred from running presents a hurdle to implementing this vision. Nonetheless, his ideas and influence could continue to have an impact on how Romanians think about defense and foreign policy.
That said, Washington can and should pursue a reset in Romania regardless of who runs or wins in the upcoming presidential election. Canceling elections and barring candidates from running are decisions most Americans are uncomfortable with. And if Trump is serious about diplomacy with Russia and pivoting to Asia, a troop drawdown in Romania and a cancellation of the plans to expand the airbase would serve both purposes. Doing so would align with American interests, incentivizing our allies throughout Europe to do more for their own defense needs, and simply highlight that the indefinite deployment of U.S. troops can’t be taken for granted.
Withdrawing troops from Romania would rattle NATO, yes, but it would demonstrate American resolve and encourage Europeans to do more than just talk about strategic autonomy. This action could even be used as a bargaining chip to incentivize Russia to cease fighting in Ukraine as Moscow has long complained of NATO troops moving ever eastward.
If the Biden administration’s plans to expand the airbase and U.S. troop presence in Romania are seen through by the Trump administration, this would keep Washington more committed to tensions with Moscow and tied to an increasingly undemocratic government in Bucharest. It is hard to see that as a mission vital to American interests.
It is preferable to maintain good relations with Bucharest and Europe absent the deployment of U.S. troops. However, the American interest in drawing down in Europe and finding a modus vivendi with the only other nuclear superpower remains regardless of how much we like or dislike the governments in Europe.
Michael Hall is the Communications Manager of Defense Priorities. Follow him on X: @michaelryhall.
Image: LCV / Shutterstock.com.
