The NASCAR Cup Series is heading to Richmond Raceway for a Virginia showdown on Easter Sunday.
It’ll be the first night race of the season, beginning at 7 p.m. ET on FOX.
The Toyota drivers have been the star of the show in 2024, but Chevy driver William Byron captured his second victory of the season last week at COTA. Byron became the first repeat winner in 2024.
Richmond is a 0.75-mile short track with high tire wear.
It won’t be as extreme as this year’s Bristol race, but managing your tires is key to scoring a great finish.
I’ve got my eye on a few of NASCAR’s top drivers in my favorite prop bets for the week.
Toyota Owners 400 Prop Bets
Driver matchup: Austin Dillon over Josh Berry (+115, BetMGM)
My matchup bet for Richmond features two drivers that’ll likely run mid-pack. Dillon and Berry have a combined one top-15 finish this season. The odds have Berry as a sizable favorite, but Dillon has a strong track history at Richmond.
Over his last 11 starts at the track, he has six top-10 finishes. He’s only finished outside the top 20 twice in that span. Berry finished second in his lone Cup Series start at Richmond, but that’s misleading.
Berry had an average running position of 20th but caught a late caution to cycle to the front. The speed rankings had Dillon and Berry right around 20th.
A top-15 finish should be enough to win this matchup. It’s been a rough start for Dillon, but Richmond presents a bounce-back opportunity.
Brad Keselowski to win Group B (+275, bet365)
Keselowski matches up against a trio of Chevy’s for a group winner bet at bet365.
He faces former Richmond winners Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch, as well as Byron.
Keselowski has shown plenty of speed at Richmond and short flat tracks in the Next-Gen car.
If you take out last year’s Gateway race, his speed ranking is 11th or better in every short flat track race since the beginning of 2023.
Larson and Byron have been strong at Richmond, but they’re inconsistent. Busch once owned Richmond Raceway but only has one finish better than eighth in his last six starts.
Keselowki’s teammate, Chris Buescher, won last year’s Summer race at Richmond. The Fords have been fast at the track, and Keselowski should have enough speed to defeat three Chevy drivers.
Top Chevy car: William Byron (+310, Caesars)
The Chevy cars will likely be behind the eight ball at Richmond Raceway.
They haven’t shown the same speed as the Fords or Toyotas, but Byron is someone I trust.
I mentioned Byron has been inconsistent at Richmond.
While that’s true, he’s proven he can run up front and compete for the win. He led 115-plus laps in the last two Spring races at Richmond.
Larson and Busch are his biggest competitors from an odds perspective.
Larson won last year’s Spring race, but his overall speed at Richmond has been worse than Byron’s.
This year’s Phoenix race is the closest comparison to Richmond, and Byron was the only Chevy driver with top-10 speed. He should lead the Chevy brigade for the second straight week.
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
Winning manufacture: Toyota (-120, DraftKings)
It’s not often that you see a manufacturer with odds shorter than +100, but Toyota is the overwhelming favorite at Richmond.
I’m willing to take the juice and bet on Toyota winning this weekend’s race.
Joe Gibbs Racing has all four drivers at the top of the board. Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. are past Richmond winners, while Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs have been competitive at the track.
I mentioned Phoenix being the biggest comparison to Richmond.
Toyota dominated that race, leading 298 of the 312 laps. The four JGR drivers and Tyler Reddick each led 50-plus laps.
We could see another banner day from the Toyota camp, with at least two or three drivers in contention for the win.
