WASHINGTON – Democrats and Republicans are going all in on Tuesday’s special elections in Florida that could influence the balance of power in the House of Representatives.
The special elections are being held to fill the seats left vacant by Mike Waltz, who left Congress to be national security adviser under the Trump administration, and Matt Gaetz, who resigned after Trump nominated him to serve as attorney general amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Gaetz ended up withdrawing his nomination.
Republican challenger and Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis is running against Democrat Gay Valimont to fill the first congressional district seat vacated by Gaetz. And Republican Florida State Sen. Randy Fine is going head to head with public school teacher Josh Weil, a Democrat, for Waltz’s seat in the sixth congressional district.
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Though Republicans are favored in both races, recent reports show Democrats’ eye-popping fundraising have some GOP officials worried about the outcome.
President Donald Trump, acknowledging the fundraising lag among Republicans, told reporters in the Oval Office on Friday that, “The airwaves are blanketed. And you never know what happens in a case like that.”
Political science experts say the elections are crucial for Republicans, who currently hold a razor thin 218-213 seat majority in the House.
That means, with all members present, Speaker Mike Johnson can currently only afford to lose two Republican votes on a bill, assuming all Democrats are opposed.
“For now, the party is riding high and have no desire to lose momentum,” said Sharon Austin, a professor of political science at the University of Florida.
Sen. Randy Fine stands for the pledge of allegiance during opening day of the Florida legislative session Tuesday, March 4, 2025.
Trump backs two Republican challengers in 1st and 6th districts
Trump has wasted no time throwing his political weight into the race, endorsing both Fine and Patronis for the seats and joining in on telerallies for both candidates last week.
During Fine’s telerally, Trump urged voters to get out to vote and said the Republican “will always have a very open door to the Oval Office.” And in Patronis’ telerally, Trump said, “The whole country’s actually watching this one. It’s a very big one.”
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Fine has been a controversial figure in Florida state politics. He recently used the term “terrorist rag” when referring to a keffiyeh, a Middle Eastern headdress, worn by a speaker during a meeting. He’s also previously clashed with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, claiming that the governor has failed to address antisemitism.
DeSantis told reporters last week that he thinks Fine will underperform in the special election. A recent St. Pete Polls survey found Fine leading Weil by four percentage points. The survey was conducted among 403 likely voters in the district with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Jimmy Patronis won the Republican Primary Tuesday evening.
But Fine told USA TODAY the election comes down to one thing: ensuring that Trump’s agenda remains on track.
“Do you want Mike Johnson to be speaker, or do you want Hakeem Jeffries to be speaker? Do you want President Trump to be successful, or do you want to impeach him? That’s what the election is all about because the margins in the US House are so tight,” he said.
Normally, the voting turnout for off year elections are lower than presidential years.
“We’re doing all the things you do in a campaign, door knocking, phone calling, television ads. You know, we’re running a hard fought campaign the way you’re supposed to do it,” he said.
Weil’s campaign has raised nearly $9.5 million through March 12, according to Federal Election Commission data, and that number has reached $10 million in the weeks since. In comparison, Fine has raised less than a million dollars, data shows.
More: Matt Gaetz says he will not return to Congress next year
Valimont has raised nearly $6.5 million through March 12, while Patronis has raised a little over $2.1 million. Patronis said though he was concerned about the numbers, he’s “got a record to stand by.”
U.S. House of Representative District One Democratic candidate Gay Valimont speaks during a town hall meeting at the Pensacola Yacht Club on Friday, March 13, 2025. Valmont is running against Republican challenger Jimmy Patronis for the seat vacated by Matt Gaetz. The Special to fill the seat is on April 1, 2025.
Who can vote in the Florida special election?
Only voters registered in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts will get to participate in Tuesday’s special election.
Both districts combined represent about 1.6 million Floridians.
Campaign signs sit on the side of the road supporting Democratic nominee Josh Weil outside of his campaign event at the Silver Springs Shores Community Center on March 26, 2025 in Ocala, Florida. Polls show that Mr. Weil is within the margin of error in defeating Republican Randy Fine to flip National Security Advisor Mike Waltz’s old seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The race for the 6th district is one of two Florida Congressional special elections set for April 1st.
The 1st District, Gaetz’s old seat, encompasses the western-most part of Florida’s panhandle, including Pensacola and Destin. The 6th, where Waltz once represented, is along the state’s eastern coast, covering cities such as Daytona Beach as well as the Ocala National Forest.
Democrats ramp up grassroots efforts
Valimont and Weil have poured their energy into knocking on doors and holding campaign events – despite the fact that they are running in red districts.
Lonna Atkeson, director of the LeRoy Collins Institute at Florida State University, said that the Democrats’ momentum in the special elections signal that the party is keen on fighting back after a bruising 2024 election in which they lost the presidency and Congress.
Valimont, a self-described “gun violence prevention activist” who ran against Gaetz last year and lost by 32 percentage points, said that she’s confident she can beat Patronis.
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“We were, you know, well aware that because of Matt, because of who he is, because of his family name, and it’s mostly because people respect his father here, who is a state senator, that the Gaetz name just carries weight. And now that there is not a Gaetz in this race, it makes it completely different,” she said.
Both Valimont and Weil have been attempting to tie the Trump administration’s actions to impacts felt on the local level when campaigning. Billionaire Elon Musk, for instance, has doubled down on his goal of cutting government spending and downsizing federal agencies.
Democratic nominee Josh Weil speaks during a campaign stop at the Silver Springs Shores Community Center on March 26, 2025 in Ocala, Florida. Polls show that Mr. Weil is within the margin of error in defeating Republican Randy Fine to flip National Security Advisor Mike Waltz’s old seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The race for the 6th district is one of two Florida Congressional special elections set for April 1st.
“My opponent has vowed only to serve Donald Trump, which is simply not the job… I promise to fight these cuts, focus on lowering costs instead of fighting culture wars, and help our community thrive.” Weil said in a statement.
They’ve also gotten the support of some lawmakers.
Rep. Maxwell Frost, D-Fla., the youngest member of Congress, kicked off a statewide phonebank as part of get out of the vote efforts for both campaigns on Thursday. And progressive firebrand Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., endorsed Weil last week, arguing that Weil will be a “champion for Florida’s working class.”
Special elections as stepping stone for 2026
Who wins in the special elections doesn’t necessarily indicate how well Democrats and Republicans will do in the 2026 midterms, experts say. “The party of the president.. almost always loses safety seats in the midterms,” said Atkeson.
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But the special elections will be a way for Republicans to test the water with voters after the first few months of the Trump administration.
It’s also an opportunity for Democrats to spread their message ahead of the midterms – particularly as the party’s favoribility rankings are in a tank.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin told USA TODAY that the special elections are about “building long-term political power.”
“We can’t show up every four years and expect voters to hand us their votes,” he said. “The DNC is making clear that there are no off years and we’re going to fight like hell for every vote everywhere.”
Savannah Kuchar contributed to this report.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Florida special election: Meet the candidates, see what’s at skate
