WASHINGTON – One way or another, Donald Trump says 2024 will be the end of an era: His last presidential election race.
It’s a good bet, some Republicans said. But it’s also not a gold-plated one.
While Trump in a recent interview responded that he won’t run again in 2028 even if he loses to Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in November, some Republicans said they suspect the former 45th president of the United States will keep at it for as long as possible, if only to grab attention and raised money.
“He’s going to maintain his grip on the party for as long as he can,” said Republican political strategist Alex Conant.
Others cited his obvious age and apparent fatigue.
“I’ve never heard a candidate answer that question that way,” said GOP strategist Mike Madrid. “That was like a flat out ‘no – I’m done.”
Other takeaways from Trump’s 2028 comments:
Trump may be less-than-confident
Trump has suggested before that he would not run in 2028 – if he won in November.
But he’s also made frequent comments through the years that he could try to sidestep the U.S. Constitution to extend his stay in the White House beyond the two-term limitation on presidents.
His latest statement came after a question of what happens if he loses in 2024, and amounted to a rare admission by Trump that he could indeed be defeated by Harris.
When journalist Sharyl Attkisson asked about a 2028 candidacy, Trump replied: “I don’t see that at all. I think that, hopefully, we’re going to be successful.”
That word “hopefully” also drew attention.
Anthony Scaramucci, the former White House communications director who has turned into an opponent of Trump, said it looks to him like the former president has actually “lost his fighting spirit.”
“Something happened to this man,” Scaramucci said. “It could be the assassination attempts. It could be the humiliation that he faced at the debate, but there’s something wrong.”
Trump is telling the truth
Some Republican take Trump at his word – this time – and believe that the GOP will need to start thinking about what a post-Trump future might look like ahead of the next mid-term elections in 2026 and another White House campaign for 2028.
Age is one big reason why. At 78, Trump became the oldest presidential nominee of a major party after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July.
Trump would turn 82 in mid-June of 2028, just as the next nominating contest for president is reaching its end at another Republican National Convention.
“He is an old man,” Madrid said. “The energy level is not there, and it is evident.”
Not so fast: Trump may need the money
Other Republicans pointed out that Trump is not exactly a model of consistency, and predicted he would wait until the last possible moment before retiring from presidential politics.
One reason: The intense desire for attention. Another: Legal expenses.
“His ability to raise money disappears once he’s not running again,” Conant said.
If Trump loses this election, he faces the prospects of two trials – one in Washington, D.C., the other in Georgia – on charges related to efforts to steal the 2020 election from Biden. Another one could still happen in Florida surrounding charges tied to his handling of classified documents, though that case is currently on hold while it works its way through the appellate courts.
Trump also still faces sentencing for his conviction in the New York hush money case. He is appealing the conviction, and that process could be time-consuming and expensive.
The former president is still on the hook for more than $500 million in various civil judgements; he has appealed those cases, but that also takes money.
We’ve been down this road before
Back when he was a businessman and television star, Trump often flirted with the idea of running for president, but always backed away – until the 2016 cycle.
After being inaugurated as president in January of 2017, Trump almost immediately set up a re-election committee for 2020.
During his re-election run four years ago against Biden, Trump told supporters at a September rally in North Carolina: “If I lose to him, I don’t know what I’m going to do. I will never speak to you again … You’ll never see me again.”
At his “farewell” address at Joint Base Andrews following his loss to Biden, even after a second impeachment over the near-insurrection of Jan. 6, 2021, Trump told supporters: “We will be back in some form.”
Trump then teased another run for months before formally announcing he would make a third White House bid in November of 2022.
Trump may be juicing his base
Lara Brown, author of “Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants,” said that, at heart, “Trump is a salesman and is never not negotiating.”
As such, she said, the former president is “only focused on creating the most interest and urgency around whatever he is selling at the moment” – in this case, his political future.
It is “farcical” to think that Trump could run again as a 82-year-old two-time loser, Brown said, and “it seems highly likely that his party would not want him back.”
“It is also possible that, if he loses, the court cases will continue and he’ll be in prison by 2028, making a run even less probable,” she added.
At the same time, Brown said Trump needs to inspire – and warn – longtime supporters who still have at least one election to go.
Said Brown: “His statement is more about convincing his supporters of the urgent need for them to vote for him this time around – because there may not be a next time.”
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump says 2024 is his last campaign. But don’t bet on it yet.
