The Trump Train continues to roll.
At least according to betting odds where former President Donald Trump is pulling away from Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump, who led big in July when his opponent was President Joe Biden, saw his lead evaporate after Biden dropped out paving the way for Harris to run.
And Harris turned the tides, actually taking the lead over Trump in September. Things changed the day of the vice presidential debate and since the start of the month, Trump has been the betting favorite.
Things continue to go in his favor, as Trump now has a 59 percent chance to win the election, compared to Harris’ 40.1 percent, according to betting odds from realclearpolling.com.
And all of the major bookmakers agree.
Betonline and Point Bets have the race 59-40 in favor of Trump. Smarkets have it 56-40 in Trump’s favor. Polymarket has it 58-38.
Others are even better news for Trump. He leads 60-40 at the Bovada and Bwin, and at Betsson, it’s 61-59 in Trump’s favor.
Trump’s and Harris’ probability of winning each state
Trump’s probability of winning began rising in the past two weeks as Harris’ polling declined in battleground states. The eight battleground states as defined by Real Clear Politics will account for 93 of the 538 electoral votes.
Probabilities aren’t potential margins of victory
Polymarket has underscored in its recent “The Oracle” newsletters that the probability a candidate might win – expressed as percentage – isn’t comparable to the percentage of votes a candidate might win in a state.
One way to view the difference is through the odds on NFL games. BetMGM gives the Chicago Bears 56% probability of defeating the Washington Commanders this Sunday. The Commanders have a 49% chance of winning. That’s seems like a sizable gap until you consider the Bears are just 1.5-point favorites to win on BetMGM.
Similarly, Trump had a 61% chance of winning the presidential race based on bets on Polymarket as of 7 a.m. EDT Thursday. But the gap in battleground-state support between Harris and Trump remains largely within each poll’s margin of error, according to polling aggregated by Real Clear Politics.
Trump’s probability of winning rises with lead in battleground polling
So are bettors seeing something that pollsters aren’t finding?
Odds turned up slightly for Trump earlier in the month when Ohio Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, debated Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Trump’s win probability jumped early last week when bettors on Polymarket bid up his probability of winning three battleground states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
How win probabilities and polling have differed between 2020 and 2024
Still, the betting probabilities and polling seem at odds between the past two elections.
In recent days, Trump’s probability of winning the 2024 election has approached Biden’s in 2020. During that election, though, Biden’s battleground polling was often larger than the margin of error in the polls aggregated by Real Clear Politics.
Bettors push Trump’s probability of winning higher than in previous elections
Though betting on Trump and Harris has diverged significantly in recent days, it’s below where Trump stood on the opening day of the Republican National Convention. On July 16, his odds of winning against Biden were more than 70% on Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.
According to a 2004 paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, the clear betting favorite in the month before the election has only lost twice in 1916 and 1948. The betting markets also failed to predict Trump’s win in 2016.
This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: President betting odds from Smarkets, 538, Betfair and more
