Former President Donald Trump holds narrow leads over President Biden in five of the seven swing states likely to decide the 2024 election — but a new poll indicates the race is getting closer.
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey released Wednesday shows the 45th president besting the incumbent by seven percentage points in North Carolina (49%-42%) and five percentage points in Arizona (49%-44%).
Trump, 77, also has the edge in Georgia (47%-44%), Pennsylvania (48%-46%) and Wisconsin (47%-46%), but the spread in all three states is within the poll’s margin of error.
The two presumptive major-party nominees are tied in Nevada at 47% each, while Biden leads Trump in Michigan by a single percentage point (46%-45%).
The same outlet in April showed Trump leading Biden by 10 points in North Carolina, eight points in Nevada, seven points in Arizona, six points in Georgia and four points in Wisconsin. Biden’s lead in Michigan has shrunk one point from the April survey, while Trump’s margin in Pennsylvania has grown by the same amount.
Biden, 81, won six of the seven swing states from Trump four years ago, with only North Carolina backing the Republican.
A plurality of surveyed battleground voters listed the economy as their No. 1 issue (35%), followed by immigration (14%) and democracy (10%).
Nearly half of the respondents (49%) said they worried about violence breaking out around the time of the Nov. 5 election.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the highest-polling third-party candidate, received 7% support in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Kennedy reached 8% in Georgia and 6% in Wisconsin.
The 70-year-old Kennedy is confirmed to be on the ballot in Michigan and also claims to have achieved access in Nevada and North Carolina as part of his push to be an alternate to Trump and Biden in all 50 states.
The poll, conducted online May 7-13, surveyed 4,962 registered voters in the seven swing states: 795 in Arizona with a margin of error of 3%, 795 in Georgia with margin of error of 3%, 704 in Michigan with a margin of error of 4%, 459 in Nevada with a margin of error of 5%, 704 in North Carolina with a margin of error of 4%, 812 in Pennsylvania with a margin of error of 3% and 693 in Wisconsin with a margin of error of 4%.
