New Keystone State polling shows a closely divided presidential race that’ll likely be decided on gender grounds — with when exactly people choose to vote also a big tell on whether they prefer Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
The Quinnipiac survey of 2,186 likely Pennsylvania voters was conducted Oct. 24 to 28 and finds a race that could be as narrow as 2016’s Trump win by 0.72 points or Joe Biden’s 1.17-point margin four years ago.
The data show the GOP nominee headed to a narrow plurality victory, taking 47% in a multi-candidate race where Harris garners 46% support, Green Party hopeful Jill Stein 2%, and Libertarian Chase Oliver 1%.
No better measure of how closely divided the electorate is can be found than the even split among independent voters, with Trump and Harris deadlocked at 43%.
But other metrics show deeper segmentation.
Trump leads Harris 53% to 42% with white voters, for example, though the gender gap among that cohort is a chasm. The former president leads with white men 63% to 33% but trails 51% to 45% with white women.
Overall, Trump leads 57% to 37% with men, nearly doubling his 11-point lead with his own gender in the survey earlier this month, but trails Harris with women 55% to 39%. That performance is static; earlier this month, Harris was up 55% to 40% with female voters.
“The gender gap widens with Trump increasing his lead among men, as what remains a very tight race heads into the final stretch,” remarks poll director Tim Malloy.
Harris dominates with black voters, 73% to 15%.
The race’s other dramatic split will remind seasoned observers of the 2020 election.
The former president is poised to clean up on Election Day, taking 55% of likely voters, compared with 38% for Harris.
But absentee and mail voters appear headed to Harris’ column in big numbers, with 63% supporting the veep and just 32% with Trump. This is backed up by Commonwealth of Pennsylvania data, which show 881,779 Democrats have voted, compared with 501,736 Republicans.
“While a majority of the approximately seven million Pennsylvanians voting will do so at a polling place, possibly two million citizens will have cast their ballot early by mail. History tells us that the candidate who looks like a clear winner on Election night based on Election Day voting could well be a loser once the hand count of the early vote is finally completed,” added Malloy.
The presidential race won’t be the only close contest on the ballot, with GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick closing the gap with Democratic incumbent Bob Casey to 50% to 47%.
McCormick has narrowed an 8-point deficit in the previous poll of the race. Now the question is whether he has time to close the job.
He still has work to do with independents, with whom Casey leads 52% to 42%.
