Is Donald Trump going to get a chance to make America great again?
After Tuesday’s vice presidential debate, the chances look much better.
The former president, who was leading President Joe Biden in the polls before Biden stepped aside to let Vice President Kamala Harris take the Democratic nomination, is back in the race after trailing for more than a month.
Harris had been leading Trump according to bookmakers for about a month before Tuesday’s vice presidential debate.
According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November’s election while Trump comes in at 49.3%.
And now they’re split across the board.
Winners and losers: The winners (and losers) from VP debate between JD Vance, Tim Walz
Betsson, Bwin, Points Bet, Polymarket and Smarkets now have the race as a pick’em.
Betfair gives Trump a 1% edge over Harris, 48% to 47%. Bvoda still has Harris ahead, 51% to 49%.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek there was a change after the vice presidential debate between Trump’s running mate JD Vance and Harris’ vice presidential nominee Tim Walz.
“Kamala Harris had been as short as 20/21 yesterday to win November’s vote, however those odds have drifted out to 21/20 following the vice president debate overnight,” Rosbottom said.
“With the U.S. election just over a month away, it’s safe to say the race to the White House is well and truly heating up.”
It was likely the last of the debates. Trump and Harris met for a debate in September, and have not agreed to a second face-off.
The political climate over the last couple of months has made history and here are some headlines that have affected this race:
Most recently, there are bubbling issues signaling chaos ahead of the election such as the port strike along the East and Gulf Coast ports and the boiling conflicts in the Middle East.
What did Allan Lichtman predict for the presidential election of 2024?
Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished professor of history at American University and lives in Bethesda, Maryland.
The presidential historian has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump. He claims to use a set of 13 “keys” to make his picks, which range from economic indicators to candidates’ charisma.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half-century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public’s opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: President betting odds from Smarkets, 538, Betfair and more
