Former Vice President Kamala Harris choosing not to run for president would leave two high-profile Democrats tied as frontrunners in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, according to a new poll.
Why It Matters
Harris’ decision about whether to run for president again could be a major factor in how competitive the 2028 primary will be. Most polls show her as an early frontrunner, though some suggest her lead has slipped as voters eye other candidates. Harris, however, has not said for sure she plans to run again and has also been floated as a California gubernatorial candidate in 2026.
The poll, conducted by Echelon Insights, comes as the party remains divided about the best way to move forward. While some Democrats believe the party lost 2024 due to moving too far left, more progressive Democrats say losses stemmed from voters believing the party abandoned the working class. The divide has left Democrats with little direction and no clear leader ahead of the primaries.
What to Know
If Harris ultimately decides to make another go at the White House, she would have an advantage over other Democrats, according to the poll, which found her leading with 26 percent support.
However, if she does not, California Governor Gavin Newsom and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg would emerge as frontrunners with support of 12 percent of respondents. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a New York Democrat who is a favorite among more progressive Democrats, placed third at 9 percent.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images; Kent Nishimura/Getty Images
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro followed at 8 percent, 7 percent and 5 percent, respectively. No other candidate cracked 5 percent support.
The poll surveyed 1,084 likely voters from June 10 to July 14, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Polls this far out from 2028 are “informative but not necessarily instructive,” Meena Bose, the executive dean of Hofstra University’s Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs, told Newsweek.
“They largely indicate which candidates have name recognition or have expressed interest in running in 2028,” she said. “As recent presidential elections, including 2008, 2016, 2020, and 2024 indicate, at least one major-party nominee had limited public attention as a likely presidential contender three years before the election.”
Newsom and Buttigieg may have early leads because of that public visibility, but a more solid idea of who is running—and who is leading—will develop after the midterms and change after debates and early contests, Bose said.
Whether Ocasio-Cortez is a viable candidate will be seen after the midterms, she said.
“Since U.S. Representative Ocasio-Cortez’s surprise victory in the 2018 Democratic primary, her name has been raised regularly as a potential presidential contender, particularly given her appeal to youth voters,” she said. “Shifting from a House campaign to a presidential campaign will be demanding and will require attention to a national rather than a local constituency.”
Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University, told Newsweek thatthe poll backs up that Newsom and Buttigieg are credible candidates.
“Their percentages are not large as it is very early. They are candidates with a lot of name recognition, with Newsom gaining visibility in running in with Trump as he sent the national guard to L.A. Buttigieg was a candidate in the past and remained visible while in the Biden administration,” Shapiro said.
Ocasio-Cortez may benefit from Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the Democratic primary for New York City’s mayoral race, he said.
“She has had a lot of visibility in Democratic party politics,” he said. “Mamdani winning the nomination for New York mayor has given more visibility to the support for the far left in the Democratic party, which Ocasio-Cortez may benefit from.”
Newsom and Buttigieg have both fueled speculation they could run in 2028 over the past few months. Earlier in July, Newsom traveled to early-voting South Carolina to tour counties across the state. Buttigieg, meanwhile, opted against running for elected office in Michigan, where he now resides after serving in former President Joe Biden’s administration.
Candidates have already begun fundraising and making these early steps, even as the primary remains years away.
A recent Emerson College poll found Buttigieg with a lead, even with Harris in the field.
It found that 16 percent of respondents leaned toward Buttigieg, while 13 percent preferred Harris. Newsom placed third with 12 percent. Ocasio-Cortez and Shapiro both followed with seven percent. That poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from June 24 to June 25 and had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, speaking about her plans earlier this year while visiting Los Angeles-area sites impacted by wildfires: “My plans are to be in touch with my community, to be in touch with the leaders and figure out what I can do to support them…I am here and would be here regardless of the office I hold, because it is the right thing to do, which is to show up in your community and thank the folks who are on the ground.”
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, in May: “Democrats do not have the best brand around here or in a lot of places. There’s a lot of reasons for that. Some fair, and some not fair.”
California Governor Gavin Newsom told The Wall Street Journal in June: “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.”
What Happens Next
Typically, most candidates do not begin announcing presidential runs until after the midterm elections. Harris has laid out an end-of-summer timeline for an announcement about whether she will run for governor or president.
Update 7/15/25, 1:55 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Update 7/15/25, 5:29 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Robert Y. Shapiro.
