Conor McGregor is out, Alex Pereira steps in, and UFC 303 goes on without a hitch after they completely rebuild the main card.
Pereira will fight Jiri Prochazka for the second time in the last 12 months; the first fight was fascinating to watch and a knockout win for “Poatan.”
Last week, we came away with -.63 units, having missed a +310 bet on Jared Gordon, who lost by a split decision.
The week prior, we nailed 15.24 units of profit, so we’re still running hot and there’s a new angle to wager that everyone needs to know about.
Twitter followers are aware of a recent betting trend where fights are going to decision at an insane rate since the UFC changed their gloves to smaller, less damaging ones.
It’s changing the way we should be betting on the sport.
This week, eight fights are projected to end inside the distance out of 13.
Surely, there will be more decisions than that, with 7/11 fights going to decision last week.
That means that 31 out of 48 fights have gone the distance since the UFC made the switch to new gloves, a 64.5 percent decision rate, up dramatically from the 47.7 percent it was last year.
It could be worth betting every fight to go to decision and rollover winnings and hope for a wild run to continue this weekend.
UFC 303 predictions
Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka
Pereira is a leg kicking maestro and showcased that in the first fight. Prochazka was hurt in the low calf almost immediately after throwing his first punch in the octagon.
However, Prochazka was able to actually comeback and win round one in that fight, utilizing some surprisingly strong takedowns to get his opponent to the mat and keep him there.
If Prochazka utilizes grappling as part of his game plan, which he should, that could actually be his best path to victory and a world title.
Of course, both of these fighters live to win by knockout.
Pereira is showing to be a bit chinny as he gets older, and Prochazka basically just throws defense to the wind whenever possible.
Prochazka’s grappling intrigues me here, it’s a spot to bet decision at the odds of +375.
He’s worth a stab at by decision at 10/1, as world titles are all that matters in this sport, and he should be taking the path of least resistance.
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
This fight should be chaos the moment that these two step into the octagon, as Brian “T-City” Ortega matches up with Diego Lopes in the lightweight division.
Lopes has been a hurricane since he was called up to the big show, showcasing serious power in the striking and creative submissions.
Ortega, once upon time, came into the UFC doing much of the same.
Ortega is a bit older and wiser now but there are still some concerns I have backing him as slight underdog in this one.
For one, Ortega has massive deficiencies in the striking when it comes to defense.
His offense has continued to improve, but Lopes has a lot of power.
Not sure if Lopes can get a finish here, as Ortega has never been knocked out, just a doctor’s stoppage against Max Holloway.
We’ll go with the moneyline on Lopes and assume his striking takes over.
Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael “Venom” Page
Favorite bet on the card as Ian Garry steps in to face Michael Page in the middleweight division.
Garry is a wonderful striker and massive for the 185lb division. While Page nearly matches him in length, he will not be able to match him in overall strength and size.
I expect Garry to have the finishing equity here, considering Page has gone to a decision four times in his last five fights while the Irishman Garry has two finishes in four fights.
More often than not, this fight goes to a decision which is an obvious bet as stated above.
But for our purposes, take Garry at extremely reasonable prices.
UFC 303 full card picks
- Alex Pereira (-145) vs. Jiri Prochazka: Fight goes the distance (+375, BetRivers) | Prochazka by decision (10/1, BetRivers)
- Brian Ortega (+115) vs. Diego Lopes: Lopes moneyline (-135, ESPN BET)
- Anthony Smith (+124) vs. Roman Dolidze: Doldize moneyline (-140, BetMGM)
- Mayra Bueno Silva (-105) vs. Macy Chiasson: Fight goes to decision (-150, Fanatics)
- Ian Machado Garry (-146) vs. Michael “Venom” Page: Garry ML (-146, Bet365)
- Joe Pyfer (-300) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault: Fight goes the distance (+140, DraftKings)
- Cub Swanson (+200) vs. Andre Fili: Fili by decision (+230, FanDuel)
- Charles Jourdain (-118) vs. Jean Silva: Pass
- Payton Talbott (-1600) vs. Yanis Ghemmouri: Talbott by KO/TKO in rounds two or three (+185, FanDuel)
- Michelle Waterson-Gomez (+145) vs. Gillian Robertson: Fight goes the distance (-154, FanDuel)
- Andrei Arlovski (+210) vs. Martin Buday: Pass
- Rei Tsuruya (-470) vs. Carlos Hernandez: Tsuruya by decision (+265, BetMGM)
- Ricky Simon (-250) vs. Vinicius Oliveira: Fight goes the distance (+120, Caesars) | Simon by decision (+200, BetRivers)
