In the United States, the recent election season was notably active, culminating in a high-profile race that led to the victory of former President Donald Trump against his then-opponent, current President Joe Biden. During this turbulent period, many citizens cast their ballots for their preferred candidate, while others considered placing wagers on various electoral outcomes. This consideration arose in part because online platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket offered an array of political bets, framed as trading contracts, attracting participants within the country and beyond its borders.
A significant number of wagers were reportedly made on the 2024 US Presidential Election and related political events. Various sources indicated that hundreds of millions of dollars were involved in these wagers, which extended not only to the primary race for the Presidency but also to associated contests such as Senate and House seats. According to a report from Market Watch, at least $930 million was bet on two platforms alone for the 2024 Presidential Election and events tied to it. Such large-scale betting prompted concerns that political wagering could influence public perception, potentially distorting trust in the nation’s electoral processes.
On Wednesday, lawmakers from Oregon and Maryland took action. Representatives Andrea Salinas and Jamie Raskin introduced the Ban Gambling on Elections Act in the US House of Representatives. This legislative effort is directly linked to a Senate initiative led by Senator Jeff Merkley, creating what Salinas described as a House companion measure. The proposal aims to prohibit all forms of wagering on US elections. It is intended to amend portions of the Commodity Exchange Act, ensuring that placing bets on electoral outcomes would no longer be permitted under US law.
Representative Raskin emphasized the critical importance of maintaining public confidence in the electoral system. Pointing to a low level of trust in election integrity, he stressed that the country must address any practice that could undermine faith in democratic processes. He stated that the legislative push to halt political betting is necessary to preserve a transparent and reliable approach to casting and counting votes. Raskin also noted his support for the measure put forth by Representative Salinas and Senator Merkley, underscoring the belief that democracy should not resemble a horserace influenced by gambling odds.
Representative Salinas echoed these sentiments, insisting that permitting wagers on elections could incentivize bad actors to manipulate or sway results. She asserted that it is dangerous to “play roulette” with democracy without thoroughly considering the consequences. While the United States has seen significant growth in sports betting and online gambling as common entertainment, the introduction of bets on political outcomes raises unprecedented ethical and regulatory challenges. Salinas explained that, although gambling on events like sporting matches is entrenched in American culture, lawmakers must recognize the potential harm associated with betting on elections and act to mitigate related risks.
Polymarket Elections Betting in the Recent U.S. Election
As we have recently reported, during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Polymarket experienced significant fluctuations in betting odds, influenced by substantial wagers from high-stakes bettors. In early October, the platform showed nearly equal odds for both major candidates, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris each holding just under 50% probability of winning. However, by mid-October, Trump’s odds had surged to approximately 64%, while Harris’s had declined correspondingly. This shift was largely attributed to a trader known as “Fredi9999,” who reportedly placed over $43 million in pro-Trump bets, significantly impacting the market dynamics.
The substantial bets placed by “Fredi9999” and associated accounts not only altered the odds but also sparked discussions about the potential for market manipulation and the reliability of prediction markets as electoral indicators. Despite these concerns, Polymarket’s odds continued to favor Trump leading up to the election, diverging from traditional polls and other betting platforms. This divergence highlighted the influence that large-scale traders can exert on decentralized prediction markets, raising questions about the balance between market freedom and the need for regulatory oversight to ensure fair and accurate forecasting.
Political Betting Elsewhere
In other parts of the world, such as the United Kingdom, regulated betting on political outcomes is a longstanding practice, and bookmaking firms frequently set odds for elections. Companies like Betfair and Paddy Power regularly offer odds on elections, leadership contests, and even international political events. The UK Gambling Commission oversees such activities, ensuring transparency and fair play. During high-profile events like Brexit and general elections, political betting markets have attracted significant global attention, with millions of dollars wagered on various political outcomes.
In Asia, political betting is less common due to stricter regulatory environments in many countries. However, in regions where gambling is more accepted, such as Macau and the Philippines, informal betting on political events occasionally surfaces. In countries like India, where betting is largely unregulated except for specific forms of gambling like horse racing, political betting often occurs through underground markets. This unregulated environment creates challenges for transparency and fairness, raising concerns about fraud and illegal activities tied to political outcomes.
Meanwhile, in Australia and New Zealand, political betting is permitted and regulated similarly to sports betting. Major Australian betting platforms like Sportsbet and Tabcorp offer odds on political events, including national and state elections. The betting industry in these countries enjoys significant popularity, with major elections generating large volumes of bets. Australia’s strict regulatory framework ensures that these markets operate transparently, reducing concerns about manipulation or fraud. This open approach reflects a broader acceptance of betting culture in the region, where even niche events often attract attention from gamblers.
Controversial in the United States
However, in the United States, the regulatory environment differs, and the notion of legally sanctioned election betting remains controversial. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has previously evaluated certain proposals regarding political event contracts. While some individuals have advocated for structured, transparent markets to forecast political developments, many policymakers oppose such practices due to concerns about undue influence and potential corruption.
Supporters of the Ban Gambling on Elections Act argue that outlawing election betting would safeguard the political process from external manipulation. They maintain that preventing gambling on electoral outcomes reinforces the integrity of elections. Critics of election wagering point out that allowing it may deepen cynicism, as citizens could perceive electoral results as influenced by financial interests rather than the will of the electorate.
The introduction of the Ban Gambling on Elections Act represents a decisive stance taken by US lawmakers to reinforce trust in democracy. Representative Salinas, together with Senator Merkley and Representative Raskin, expressed pride in presenting legislation they believe is critical to protecting electoral integrity. They stress that acknowledging the widespread acceptance of other forms of gambling does not negate the potential hazards posed by betting on the nation’s governance.
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