The WNBA Finals shifts back to Atlanta as the Dream host the Valkyries in Game 3 of their championship series. There was some question as to whether this game would be played at State Farm Arena because of scheduling conflicts, but the league moved the game up one day to accommodate Atlanta fans.
With the series tied 1-1, the Dream are favorites to win the title and 3.5-point favorites to win Game 3. The Over/Under has dropped for a second straight game to 151.5 total points.
Valkyries vs. Dream prediction
The upside to the WNBA moving this game will be the raucous crowd the Dream will draw for their first Finals home game since 2013.
The downside is they have one less day for rest between games after a long cross-country flight from San Francisco. That fatigue will be felt on both sides, but the Dream have the advantage of the home crowd behind them as a boost.
They also have a clearly locked-in Angel Reese.
Reese flourished on the defensive end this season, taking home Defensive Player of the Year honors after a stellar campaign.
But in Game 2, her offense took center stage. Reese finished with 30 points and 16 rebounds — only the third player in WNBA Finals history with 30 and 10 — and her aggression on that end stood out. She had 18 points in the paint and scored 12 points off of the Valkyries’ 18 turnovers.
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Anytime Reese saw a mismatch, she looked to exploit it, so much so that it caught the attention of the cameras when she didn’t get the ball.
When she’s had an advantage in this series, it’s nearly impossible to stop her from scoring. Per Yahoo’s Nekias Duncan, Reese is shooting 2-of-9 against Golden State Center Kiah Stokes and 13-of-18 against every other defender in this series.
I don’t think Reese will have another historic game Wednesday night, but sportsbooks are pricing her odds at a modest 15.5 after her performance. Reese has scored over that number in four of her seven playoff games, and two of the games that she went under were blowout wins.
I’ll take the Over.
The Pick: Angel Reese Over. 15.5 points (-110, Caesars)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
