It’s the final week for us to bet for or against the worst teams in the NFL, as Week 18 signals the end of the road for 18 of 32 teams.
Week 18 is a big week for player props as players look to snag their incentive bonuses for the season.
We did a full player incentive tracker filled with potential player props to wager on this week.
You’ll notice a few of them trickle in here in our best player prop bets for the final week of the regular season.
Week 18 NFL player props, picks
Kyler Murray 50+ rushing yards (+310, Bet365 | anytime TD scorer (+170, DraftKings)
When you’re betting on quarterbacks to run, you need to ask yourself three things:
- Are they willing to run the ball, relative to their projection (the higher the projection needs to equal higher willingness)?
- Does the defense this quarterback is facing key in on stopping quarterbacks from running?
- Is there (extra) motivation to run? This includes whether key weapons are injured, if it’s a big game and the clash is an expected shootout where there may more prevent coverages.
In the interest of satisfying the above criteria, Kyler Murray has not run much this year relative to his past.
He has cleared 50 yards once in his past five games (though he did have a 48-yard game in there against the Vikings’ defense).
I think perhaps most noteworthy is James Conner and Trey Benson are out, leaving Murray bereft of talent in the backfield.
If they want to get down the field Murray will need to be nimble on his feet.
The 49ers are about middle of the pack in yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks and bottom half in yards per carry allowed.
Murray stands to make $750,000 with a rushing touchdown scored and 50 yards rushing in this game.
That’s solid chunk of change that I am certainly betting on him obtaining in the 4 p.m. window.
Blake Corum anytime touchdown scorer (+115, DraftKings) | Over 53.5 rushing yards (-110, Fanatics) 120+ rushing yards (16/1, Bet365)
I’ve been on the Blake Corum train since he got to Michigan and loved him for the Rams coming out of the draft.
Why he doesn’t get a workload behind Kyren Williams is a question I’ve been left asking far too much this year.
Betting on the NFL?
Williams is finally inactive, and bettors will have the opportunity to wager on him clear of disruptions as he should get most of the work with Ronnie Rivers splitting in sporadically.
The Seahawks’ run defense is slightly below average, allowing the ninth-most yards per carry in the NFL to opposing running backs.
With Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua also sitting this one out, there’s no reason to believe that Corum won’t be a major part of the offense.
The Rams’ running blocking unit is the sixth-best in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, so there should be running room here.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
